中国农业环境全要素生产率动态演进及收敛性分析

DYNAMIC EVOLUTION AND CONVERGENCE ANALYSIS OF TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY OF AGRICULTURAL ENVIRONMENT IN CHINA

关键词:  环境全要素生产率  评价体系  农业绿色发展  动态演进  收敛性

Key words:  total factor productivity of environment  evaluation system  green development of agriculture  dynamic evolution  astringency

摘要:

目的 厘清农业环境全要素生产率现状是探索农业绿色发展路径的逻辑起点。文章对农业环境TFP测算体系做了进一步的解构与改进，并分析其动态演进及收敛性。方法 利用基于SBM-DEA模型的GML指数，测度了1995—2018年中国30个省（市、区，不含港澳台、西藏）的农业环境TFP，在此基础上运用经济增长收敛理论探讨其收敛性。结果 中国农业环境TFP与农业生产总值变动态势基本吻合，两者的增长速率均在2010年达到峰值，此后农业环境TFP增长速率超过农业生产总值，成为推动农业高质量发展的重要力量；中国农业环境TFP的年均增长率为3.13%，增长率自东部、西部、中部、东北部依次递减；全国及四大区域的技术效率均呈现出不同程度的衰退迹象，其中东北部最为明显；全国及四大区域均存在β条件收敛，但不存在显著的σ收敛，除东北地区外，全国及其他区域均存在β绝对收敛。结论 中国农业环境TFP仍存在较大的改善空间；应加强各地之间的农业经济联动，充分发挥农业技术的空间溢出效应，促进各地农业环境TFP逐步收敛；特别对于东北部，技术效率衰退较为严重且内部出现明显的两级分化现象，不利于粮食生产安全。

Abstract:

Clarifying the current situation of total factor productivity of agricultural environment is the logical starting point of exploring the path of agricultural green development. In this paper, the TFP measurement system of agricultural environment is further deconstructed and improved, and its dynamic evolution and convergence are analyzed. The GML index based on SBM-DEA model was used to measure the TFP of agricultural environment in 30 provinces（cities and autonomous regions）of China from 1995 to 2018. On this basis, the convergence theory of economic growth was used to explore its convergence. The results were indicated as follows. China's agricultural environment TFP was basically consistent with the varying trend of agricultural GDP, and the growth rate of both reached a peak in 2010. Since then, the growth rate of agricultural environment TFP had exceeded the agricultural GDP, becoming the leading force to promote the high-quality development of agriculture.The average annual growth rate of agricultural environment TFP in China was 3.13%, and the growth rate decreased successively in the Eastern, Western, middle and northeastern. The technical efficiency of the whole country and the four regions showed signs of decline in different degrees, especially in the northeast. There was β conditional convergence in China and four regions, but there was no significant σ convergence. Except in Northeast China, there was β absolute convergence in China and other regions. In summary, there is still much room for improvement of TFP in China's agricultural environment, we should strengthen the agricultural economic linkage among provinces and regions, give full play to the spatial spillover effects of agricultural technology, and promote the gradual convergence of TFP in each province and region, and especially for the northeast, the decline of technical efficiency is more serious and there exists obvious two-level differentiation phenomenon inside, which is not conducive to food production security.