| 摘要: |
| 目的 基于1985—2017年中国省域层面的甘薯数据，文章实证研究甘薯生产布局变迁及动因分析。方法 采用GIS技术和重心理论分析中国甘薯种植面积、产量、生产集中度、比较优势的区域变迁规律及重心移动轨迹，并运用Tobit模型探析中国甘薯生产布局变迁的动因。结果 （1）中国甘薯生产已形成四川盆地区、黄淮海平原区、长江中下游地区和华南区四大农业区生产格局；（2）华南区和四川盆地区有显著的规模优势与综合比较优势，黄淮海平原区和华南区有显著的效率优势；（3）中国甘薯种植面积和产量的重心都具有明显的向西向南移动趋势，且“西扩”速度大于“南扩”；（4）甘薯有效灌溉面积、农村非农就业水平、农业技术进步和良种补贴政策对甘薯生产布局变迁的强度及方向起决定性作用。结论 把握甘薯生产变迁规律，了解其变迁驱动原因，对优化甘薯生产布局，保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。 |
| 关键词: 甘薯生产 布局变迁 动因分析 粮食安全 Tobit模型 |
| DOI：10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20220201 |
| 分类号:F329. 9;F326. 11 |
| 基金项目:国家现代农业（甘薯）产业技术体系建设项目（CARS-10-B23）；江苏省农业科技自主创新基金项目“紫甘薯全粉产业链技术创新与集成应用”（CX(17)2023） |
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| ANALYSIS ON LAYOUT EVOLUTION OF SWEET POTATO PRODUCTION IN CHINAAND ITS INFLUENCING FACTORS |
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Chen Xi1, Lu Jianzhen2, Wang Xiang2, Wang Kai1
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1.School of Economic and Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, China;2.Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Nanjing 210014, Jiangsu, China
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the data from 1985 to 2017, and applying GIS technology and center of gravity theory, we analyzed sweet potato's regional changes law and the trajectory of barycenter movement of planting area, yield, concentration of production, and comparative advantages in China. We also adopted the Tobit model to investigate the influencing factors of changes in the distribution of sweet potato production. The results were listed as follows.（1）There were four core production regions for sweet potato in China: the Sichuan Basin, the Huanghuaihai Plain, the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze river, and the South China area;（2）The South China area and the Sichuan Basin had significant advantages in production scales and overall comparative advantages, while the Huanghuaihai Plain and the South China area had significant advantages in production efficiency;（3）The barycenter of planting area and yield of sweet potato in China obviously shifted to southwest, with a more obvious “west-shift” trend than “south-shift” trend;（4）The effective irrigation area of sweet potato, non-agricultural employment level in rural areas, progress in agricultural technology, and the policy of superior-seed subsidy played a decisive role in the strength and direction of changes in distribution of sweet potato production.Therefore, grasping the laws of changes in sweet potato production and understanding the reasons for changes are vital for securing food supply in China. |
| Key words: layout evolution motivation analysis food security Tobit model |
