基于水足迹理论的黄河流域水安全评价

WATER SECURITY ASSESSMENT OF YELLOW RIVER BASIN BASED ON WATER FOOTPRINT THEORY

关键词:  水足迹  水安全评价  黄河流域  模糊综合评价法  熵权法

Key words:  water footprint  water security assessment  Yellow River Basin  fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method  entropy weight method

摘要:

目的 对黄河流域水安全状况进行评价，并探寻其有效改善措施是实现黄河流域高质量发展的关键。方法 文章基于水足迹理论从社会经济安全、农业用水安全、工业用水安全及生态用水安全4个层面构建黄河流域水安全评价模型，以黄河流域为研究区域，运用模糊综合评价法和熵权法，选取2004—2017年9个省区11个指标，分别对其水足迹、水安全状况及其影响因素进行分析。结果 黄河流域总体水足迹呈增加趋势，农业水足迹在总水足迹中占比最大，约92%；黄河流域总体水安全状况呈现变好的趋势，青海省水安全等级最高，内蒙古水安全程度最差；影响因素分析表明制约黄河流域水安全状况的主要因素为人均水足迹、农业用水效率以及灰水足迹强度，9个省区水安全主要影响因素存在地区差异性特点。结论 9个省区应结合自身短板，因地制宜，制定最适合当地发展的用水战略和节水战略，以适应黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展的目标需求。

Abstract:

Evaluating the water security of the Yellow River Basin and exploring its effective improvement measures is the key to achieving high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin. Based on the water footprint theory, this paper constructed a water security rating model from four aspects of social and economic security, agricultural water security, industrial water security and ecological water security. Based on the Yellow River Basin as the research area, using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and entropy weight method, this paper selected 11 indicators of 9 provinces from 2004 to 2017 to analyze their water footprint, water security status and their influencing factors. The results showed that: (1) The overall water footprint of the Yellow River Basin was increasing, and the agricultural water footprint accounted for 92% of the total water footprint. (2) The water security status of the Yellow River Basin was showing a trend of improvement. Qinghai province had the highest water security level and Inner Mongolia had the worst water security. (3) The analysis of influencing factors showed that the main factors restricting the water security of the Yellow River Basin were per capita water footprint, agricultural water use efficiency, and gray water footprint intensity. The main factors affecting water security in 9 provinces had regional differences. Based on the above analysis, this paper suggests that the nine provinces should combine their own shortcomings and adjust measures to local conditions to formulate the most suitable water use strategy and water-saving strategy for local development, so as to meet the target demand of ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.