城镇化对农药、化肥施用强度的影响——基于中介效应的分析

EFFECT OF URBANIZATION ON APPLICATION INTENSITY OF PESTICIDES AND CHEMICAL FERTILIZERS——ANALYSIS BASED ON THE MEDIATION EFFECT

关键词:  农药  化肥  强度  城镇化  中介效应

Key words:  pesticide  chemical fertilizer  intensity  urbanization  mediation effect

摘要:

目的 探讨城镇化对农药、化肥施用强度的影响及其作用机制。方法 文章基于文献梳理，归纳城镇化对农药、化肥施用强度的影响机理；利用2000—2018年河南省106个县的面板数据，分别探讨城镇化对农药施用强度和化肥施用强度的影响；通过分析农地经营规模与居民收入水平的中介效应，探索其影响机制。结果 （1）城镇化对农药、化肥施用强度均具有显著的负向影响；（2）城镇化的农地规模效应显著，城镇化有利于扩大农地经营规模，从而有利于降低农药、化肥施用强度；（3）城镇化的收入效应显著，居民收入水平对农药、化肥施用强度的影响呈“倒U型”变化趋势，超过1/3的县已跨过农药施用强度的拐点，全部县均已跨过化肥施用强度的拐点；（4）城镇化对农药、化肥施用强度较低的县的影响更大。结论 适度推进新型城镇化建设有利于促进农药、化肥减量；鼓励农地适度规模经营，可以充分发挥城镇化的农地规模效应，降低农药、化肥施用强度；持续增加居民收入，同时促进居民选择环境友好型食物、减少食物浪费，可以从需求侧助推农药、化肥减量。

Abstract:

The goal of this paper is to investigate the effect of urbanization on the intensity of pesticide use and chemical fertilizer use and its mechanism.Based on the literature review, this paper summarized the mechanism of the effect of urbanization on the intensity of pesticide use and chemical fertilizer use. Using the panel data of 106 counties in Henan province from 2000 to 2018,it examined the effect of urbanization on the intensity of pesticide use and chemical fertilizer use, and explored its mechanism by testing the mediation effects of farmland scale and residents' income level. The results showed that: (1) Urbanization had a significant negative impact on the intensity of pesticide use and chemical fertilizer use. (2) The farmland scale effect of urbanization is significant, and urbanization could promote the expansion of farmland scale, thereby helping to reduce the intensity of pesticide use and chemical fertilizer use. (3)The income effect of urbanization was significant, and the effect of residents' income level on the intensity of pesticide use and chemical fertilizer use showed an "inverted U-shaped" trend,and more than one-third of the counties had passed the turning point of pesticide use intensity, and all counties had passed the turning point of chemical fertilizer use intensity; (4) Urbanization had a greater impact on counties with lower pesticide use intensity and counties with lower chemical fertilizer use intensity.The paper suggests that promoting urbanization can reduce the intensity of pesticide use and chemical fertilizer use; encouraging expansion of farmland scale can enhance the farmland scale effect of urbanization and reduce the intensity of pesticide use and chemical fertilizer use; increasing residents' income while promoting residents to choose environmentally friendly foods and reduce food waste, can help to reduce pesticide use and chemical fertilizer use from the demand side.