长江经济带农业用水绿色效率测度及影响因素分析——基于超效率EBM-Geodetector模型

MEASUREMENT OF GREEN EFFICIENCY OF AGRICULTURAL WATER IN THE YANGTZE RIVER ECONOMIC BELT AND ANALYSIS OF INFLUENCING FACTORS——BASED ON THE SUPER-EFFICIENCY EBM-GEODETECTOR MODEL

关键词:  农业用水  绿色效率  超效率EBM-Geodetector模型  影响因素  长江经济带

Key words:  agricultural water  green efficiency  super-efficiency EBM-Geodetector model  influencing factors  Yangtze River Economic Belt

摘要:

目的 农业用水的可持续利用关系到区域农业绿色发展及社会经济高质量发展。方法 文章基于2010—2018年长江经济带11省市的面板数据，运用超效率EBM模型对长江经济带农业用水经济效率、环境效率及绿色效率进行测度，并借助核密度估计及ArcGIS空间分析等方法分析其时空演变规律，最后利用地理探测器模型探究其影响因素。结果 （1）2010—2018年长江经济带11省市农业用水经济效率、环境效率及绿色效率的总体效率值分别为0.879、0.933、0.939，农业用水的绿色效率高于环境效率和经济效率，即农业用水产生了较好的社会效益。（2）近9年长江经济带11省市农业用水经济效率、环境效率及绿色效率总体平均值均呈轻微波动下降趋势，农业用水科学利用问题需得到进一步的重视。（3）长江经济带下游地区农业用水绿色效率均值最高，中游地区次之，上游地区最低。其中上海市农业用水绿色效率多年均值最高（1.206），云南省最低（0.513），地区差异较显著，但核密度估计显示2010—2018年区域内农业用水绿色效率差距在缩小，总体上呈均衡协调发展趋势。（4）城镇化水平、R&D占比、人均节水灌溉面积、单位国内生产总值耗水、人均教育财政支出、人均水资源量等是长江经济带农业用水绿色效率差异的主要影响因素。结论 研究长江经济带农业水资源绿色效率并探究其影响因素，可以为推动长江经济带农业用水绿色可持续利用提供某些参考。

Abstract:

The sustainable utilization of agricultural water is related to the green development of regional agriculture and the high-quality development of social economy. Based on the panel data of 11 provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2010 to 2018, the super-efficiency EBM model was used to measure the economic efficiency, environmental efficiency and green efficiency of agricultural water in the region, and Kernel density estimation and ArcGIS spatial analysis were used to analyze its temporal and spatial evolution characteristics, then the geodetector model was used to explore its influencing factors. The results showed that: (1) The overall efficiency values ??of economic efficiency, environmental efficiency and green efficiency of agricultural water in 11 provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2010 to 2018 were 0.879, 0.933, and 0.939, respectively. The green efficiency of agricultural water was higher than environmental efficiency and economic efficiency.Agricultural water had produced substantial social benefits. (2) In the past nine years, the overall average values of economic efficiency, environmental efficiency and green efficiency of agricultural water in 11 provinces and cities of the Yangtze River Economic Belt showed a slight downward trend. The scientific utilization of agricultural water needed further attention. (3) The average green efficiency of agricultural water in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt was the highest, followed by the middle reaches, and the upper reached the lowest. Among them, Shanghai had the highest multi-year average value of green efficiency of agricultural water (1.206), and the lowest in Yunnan province (0.513). Regional differences were significant, but Kernel density estimation showed that the gap in green efficiency of agricultural water in the region was narrowed from 2010 to 2018,showing a balanced and coordinated development trend. (4) The level of urbanization, the proportion of R&D, per capita water-saving irrigation area, water consumption per unit of GDP, per capita education expenditure, and per capita amount of water resources, were the main factors affecting the difference in green efficiency of agricultural water in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Studying the green efficiency of agricultural water in the Yangtze River Economic Belt and exploring its influencing factors can provide some references for promoting the green and sustainable use of agricultural water in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.