基于DPSIR-TOPSIS模型的耕地资源环境承载力分析以安徽省颍上县为例

ANALYSIS ON THE ENVIRONMENTAL CARRYING CAPACITY OF CULTIVATED LAND RESOURCES BASED ON DPSIR-TOPSIS MODEL

关键词:  耕地承载力  DPSIR模型  TOPSIS模型  障碍因子  颍上县

Key words:  cultivated land carrying capacity  DPSIR model  TOPSIS model  obstacle factor  Yingshang county

摘要:

目的 通过测算县域尺度耕地资源环境承载力，为耕地数量、质量与生态“三位一体”保护提供参考，为农业绿色高质量发展提供支撑。方法 文章根据DPSIR模型构建安徽省颍上县耕地资源环境承载力的评价指标体系，并采用改进的TOPSIS方法与障碍度模型，测算了2010—2019年安徽省颍上县耕地资源环境承载力指数并识别了制约当地资源环境承载力的障碍因子。结果 （1）2010—2019年从承载力指数看，颍上县耕地资源环境承载力总体呈现出“波浪式”上升的态势。其中，2010—2013年耕地资源环境承载力指数0.36下降至0.33；2014—2019年耕地资源承载力指数从2014年0.41上升至2019年0.70，承载力水平实现了从中级向良好的转变。（2）从障碍因子看，影响耕地资源环境承载力的关键因子由高标准农田比例、农药施用强度、土壤有机质平均值、免耕面积比转变为人均农业产值产出、人均耕地面积、土壤pH。结论 颍上县耕地资源环境承载力目前处于良好水平，同时在基础设施、体制机制等方面还有提升空间，为此提出以下政策建议：（1）加快高标准农田建设，提升耕地产能。（2）科学合理利用耕地，推进农业绿色发展。（3）加强土壤环境监测与治理，建立耕地保护的激励与管控机制。

Abstract:

For a long time, the development and utilization of arable land in our country has been too intense, the quality of arable land has declined, and the overdraft of land has become a prominent problem restricting the sustainable development of agriculture. In recent years, the Party Central Committee has attached great importance to the sustainable use of cultivated land, and put forward a series of strategic deployments such as "having grain in the ground, storing grain in technology", and "fallow crop rotation". The protection of cultivated land has shifted from simply focusing on quantity to quantity, quality and Ecological “Trinity” transformation of cultivated land resource and environmental carrying capacity has become a key issue in measuring the protection and transformation of cultivated land and agricultural green development in the region. However, there is currently a lack of resource and environmental carrying capacity evaluation at the county scale for cultivated land. Quantification of indicators and scientific methods were used to measure the environmental carrying capacity of cultivated land resources at the county scale, which can provide reference for enriching the evaluation of the environmental carrying capacity of cultivated land resources. The DPSIR model was used to construct an evaluation index system for the environmental carrying capacity of cultivated land resources in Yingshang county, Anhui province, and an improved TOPSIS method and obstacle degree model were adopted. The environmental carrying capacity of cultivated land resources and obstacle factors in Yingshang county, Anhui province from 2010 to 2019 were evaluated and identified. The results of the study were showed as follows. During the period 2010 to 2019, the environmental carrying capacity of cultivated land resources in Yingshang county showed a “wave-like” increase. The situation, among which, from 2010 to 2013, the resource and environmental carrying capacity of cultivated land was in a downward trend, decreasing from 0.36 to 0.33. And from 2014 to 2019, with the advancement of agricultural green development, the carrying capacity of cultivated land resources increased from 0.41 to 0.70, showing the level of bearing capacity changed from intermediate to good. From the perspective of obstacle factors, the per capita output value, per capita cultivated land and soil pH were the most important factors affecting the environmental carrying capacity of cultivated land resources. Therefore, it can be concluded that the environmental carrying capacity of cultivated land resources in Yingshang county is currently at a good level, and there is room for improvement in infrastructure, institutional mechanisms, etc. And then it proposes the following policy recommendations. (1) Accelerate the construction of high-standard farmland and increase the productivity of farmland. (2) Use farmland scientifically and rationally to promote green agricultural development. (3) Strengthen soil environmental monitoring and governance, and establish incentive and control mechanisms for farmland protection .