非农就业对农户农地价值预期的影响研究——来自CHFS的实证分析

RESEARCH ON THE IMPACT OF NON-AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT ON FARMERS' EXPECTATIONS OF FARMLAND VALUE——EVIDENCE FROM THE CHINA HOUSEHOLD FINANCE SURVEY

关键词:  非农就业  农户  农地  农地价值预期  CHFS

Key words:  non-agricultural employment  farm households  agricultural land  farmers' farmland value expectations  CHFS

摘要:

目的 在我国农村人口非农就业转移进程不断加深背景下，非农就业活动改变了农户家庭与农地之间的依附关系，研究非农就业活动对农户农地价值预期的影响，既有助于理解农地价值形成机理，又对推进我国农业农村现代化具有重要意义。方法 文章基于2015年中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）农户层面的微观数据，以耕地作为农地的代表，采用OLS回归模型和中介效应模型实证分析非农就业对农户农地价值预期的影响。结果 非农就业并未降低农户对农地的依赖、减少耕地要素投入，相反非农就业增强了土地替代要素的投入、激发了农户农转非的资本积累需求，从而导致农户提高了农地的价值预期。结论 （1）我国农户的非农就业转移并未完成，亟需创新和完善农村土地流转机制；（2）农地依旧是农户生存的重要保证，需积极支撑或培育专业化农业生产性服务业和智能化农业机械制造业的发展，弥补农业劳动力非农转移带来的负面效应，加快推进我国农业农村现代化。

Abstract:

Since the great expansion of China's rural labor migration to non-agricultural sectors, non-farm employment in rural China have changed rapidly the dependency relationship between rural households and agricultural land. Investigating the impact of non-agricultural employment on the farmers' farmland value expectations, not only help to understand the formation mechanism of farmers' farmland value expectations, but also promote China's agricultural modernization. Using the household survey data from China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) in 2015, the paper investigated whether and how non-agricultural employment may affect the farmers' farmland value expectations based on OLS model and mediating effect model. The results showed that non-agricultural employment did not reduce farmers' farmland value expectations by reducing their dependence on farmland and reducing the effect channels of factor input, while it increased the agricultural inputs and stimulated farmers' demand for capital accumulation for hukou conversion from rural-origin hukou to urban hukou. The conclusions are listed as follows. (1) The non-agricultural transfer of rural households in China has not been completed, and there is an urgent need to innovate and improve the mechanism of rural land transfer. (2) Agricultural land is still an important asset for the farmers' livelihood, and we need to improve the agricultural productive services and agricultural machinery manufacturing in order to overcome the negative effect of the transfer of rural labor to nonfarm employment.