供给侧改革背景下山东省水果生产投入对产出的影响研究——基于对502个果农户的调查

RESEARCH ON THE INFLUENCE OF FRUIT PRODUCTION INPUT ON OUTPUT IN SHANDONG PROVINCE UNDER THE BACKGROUND OF SUPPLY-SIDE REFORM——BASED ON A SURVEY OF 502 FRUIT FARMERS

关键词:  水果生产  投入要素  水果产值  C-D生产函数  供给侧改革

Key words:  fruit production  input factors  fruit output value  C-D production function  structural reforms in supply-side

摘要:

目的 山东省是我国水果生产大省，山东水果生产对我国水果尤其是北方水果生产起到一定引导作用。因此，对山东省水果生产的投入结构进行分析，找到调整投入结构提高效益的策略对山东乃至全国水果生产投入结构调整具有重要意义。方法 文章以山东省水果生产投入结构为研究对象，基于柯布—道格拉斯（C-D）生产函数理论，采用2019年山东省5个水果主产地市502个果农户的调研数据，构建了C-D生产函数模型，分析了各种投入对山东水果产出的影响。结果 物质与服务费用对水果产出有最大的正影响，结果园面积、劳动力投入、户主文化程度和技术培训次数也对水果产出有显著正影响，而户主年龄和是否加入合作社则未通过显著性检验。结论 为了提高水果产出的效益，从供给侧提出了调整施肥结构、加大果业生产的机械投入、积极探索免套袋技术和药物疏花技术、加大技术投入和推广等一系列优化投入结构的政策建议以及积极发展现代矮砧密集栽培模式、充分发挥合作社的作用、促进水果产业三产融合等对策。

Abstract:

Shandong province is a major fruit production province in China. Shandong fruit production plays a certain guiding role in China's fruit production, especially in the north. Therefore, through the analysis of fruit production input structure in Shandong province and this research finds out the strategies to adjust the input structure and improve the efficiency. It is of great significance to the adjustment of fruit production input structure in Shandong province and even the whole country. Taking the structure of fruit production input in Shandong province as the research object, and based on Cobb-Douglas production function theory, this research adopted the survey data of 502 fruit farmers in five major fruit producing cities in Shandong province in 2019, and constructed a C-D production function model to analyze the influence of various inputs on fruit output in Shandong province. The results showed that the cost of material and service had the greatest positive impact on fruit output. The garden area, labor input, education level of householder and technical training frequency also had significant positive impact on fruit output, while the age of householder and whether to join the cooperative did not pass the significance test. Therefore, in order to improve the efficiency of fruit output, a series of policy suggestions are put forward to optimize the input structure from the supply side, such as adjusting the fertilization structure, increasing the mechanical input in fruit production, actively exploring the non-bagging technology and drug flower-thinning technology, and increasing the investment in technical promotion. At the same time, some countermeasures are put forward, such as developing the modern dwarf anvil intensive cultivation mode, giving full play to the role of cooperative and promoting the integration of three industries in fruit industry.