全球稻米贸易网络空间格局演化特征及对中国的启示

SPATIAL PATTERN EVOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL RICE TRADE NETWORK AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR CHINA

关键词:  稻米贸易  社会网络  空间格局  贸易组团  粮食安全

Key words:  rice trade  social network  spatial pattern  trade group  food safety

摘要:

目的 了解与掌握全球稻米贸易的总体形势，为中国稻米贸易政策的调整优化提供科学依据。方法 文章采用社会网络分析方法，利用全球稻米贸易关系数据构建全球稻米贸易网络，定量解析稻米贸易网络格局整体概况及演化特征。结果 2000—2020年全球稻米贸易网络密度由0.065增至0.103，平均度由12.10增至20.15，平均路径长度由2.13减少至1.99，平均聚类系数由 0.22增长至0.30，世界各国在全球稻米贸易网络中的活跃程度、影响程度、独立性程度和控制力程度差异显著，全球稻米贸易网络组团数量由8个减少5个，网络模块度由0.488降低到0.436。结论 （1）全球稻米贸易关系的网络化程度加深，复杂性增强，网络规模不断增大，贸易联系日益紧密，网络传输效率整体提高，具有典型的小世界网络特征；（2）美国、印度、泰国、巴基斯坦、意大利在全球稻米贸易关系中活跃度高，长期居于全球稻米贸易网络中的枢纽位置；（3）全球稻米贸易网络组团集聚化与全球化并行，其中，东亚、东南亚、南亚区块组团不断整合分割、分化重组，美洲和欧洲区块组团相对稳定、影响力不断增强。

Abstract:

Understanding and mastering the overall situation of global rice trade is beneficial to provide a scientific basis for the adjustment and optimization of China's rice trade policy. Based on the method of social network analysis, the global rice trade network was constructed by using the rice trade relationship data, and the overall characteristics and changes of the network pattern were analyzed. The results were indicated as follows. (1) From 2000 to 2020, the global rice trade network density enhanced from 0.065 to 0.103, the average degree rose from 12.10 to 20.15, the average path length decreased to 1.99 from 2.13, and the average clustering coefficient increased to 0.30 from 0.22. (2) There were significant differences in the degree of activity, influence, independence and control among countries in the global rice trade network, and the number of groups in the global rice trade network had been reduced from 8 to 5, which resulted in the network modularity decrease to 0.436 from 0.488. The conclusions are indicated as follows. (1) The networking, complexity and interlinks degree of trade relations are further deepened, demonstrating typical small-world network characteristics, which enhances the network transmission efficiency significantly. (2) The United States, India, Thailand, Pakistan, and Italy are highly active in the global rice trade relationship, and centering in the global rice trade network. (3) The agglomeration and globalization of the global rice trade network group concurrence, and East Asia, Southeast Asia and South Asia groups experience in integration, partition, differentiation and recombination continuously. The Americas and Europe groups are relatively stable, and their influences are still powerful.