| 摘要: |
| 目的 为测度怒江州土地利用及生态系统服务价值。方法 文章借助斑块生成土地利用变化模拟模型（Patch-generating Land Use Simulation Model，PLUS）及当量因子法计算3种情景下土地利用变化的生态系统服务价值（Ecosystem Services Values，ESV），选取2013年和2019年两期遥感数据及2013—2019年NPP和粮食产量、播种面积以及粮食价格数据进行2025年土地利用变化模拟并对其生态系统服务价值进行评估。结果 （1）采用PLUS模型对2025年怒江州土地利用变化类型模拟的效果较好，其总体精度为82.3%，FOM值为0.26，说明模型具有普适性；（2）2019年自然情景下的ESV为764.18亿元，2025年自然发展、生态保护及耕地保护情景的ESV分别为759.42亿元、764.16亿元和762.80亿元；（3）生态价值敏感度小于1，表明怒江州ESV对生态系数缺乏弹性，结果可信；（4）在生态价值变化度中，林地和水域变化度大于1，说明林地和水域面积变化对怒江州ESV的影响大。结论 怒江州土地利用变化度小，生态系统服务价值总量高。 |
| 关键词: 多情景 PLUS模型 土地利用变化 生态系统服务价值 怒江州 |
| DOI：10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20230114 |
| 分类号:K901 |
| 基金项目:云南省基础研究计划面上项目“滇中城市群建设用地空间扩展非协调性形成机理及优化路径研究”（202201AT070024）；教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目“土地市场对城市建设用地扩张影响的尺度效应及调控机制研究——以成渝城市群为例”(20YJCZH250) |
|
| LAND USE SIMULATION AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES VALUES EVALUATION IN NUJIANG PREFECTURE——A MULTIPLE-SCENARIO ANALYSIS BASED ON PLUS MODEL |
|
Li Anlin1, Zhou Yan1, Tang Liyi2, Niu Lede1, Pan Mei3
|
|
1.Geographic Faculty of Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, Yunnan, China;2.Yunnan Tongyuan Space Planning and Design Co., Ltd, Kunming 650041, Yunnan, China;3.Foreign Languages School of College of Arts and Sciences Kunming, Kunming 650221, Yunnan, China
|
| Abstract: |
| The aim of this research is to measure land use and ecosystem services values in Nujiang prefecture. Therefore, the article calculated the Ecosystem Services Values (hereinafter, ESV) of land use change in three different scenarios with the help of Patch-generating Land Use Simulation Model (hereinafter, PLUS) and Equivalent Factor Method. Two periods of remote sensing data for 2013 and 2019, and data on NPP and grain production, sown area and grain prices from 2013 to 2019 were selected to simulate land use change in 2025 and assessed its ecosystem services values. The results showed that: (1) PLUS model achieved a good effect in the simulation of land use change types in Nujiang Prefecture in 2025, with an overall accuracy of 82.3% and a FOM value of 0.26, indicating that the model was universal; (2) The ESV for the natural scenario in 2019 was 76.418 billion RMB yuan, and the ESVs for the natural development, ecological conservation and arable land conservation scenarios in 2025 were 75.942 billion, 76.416 billion and RMB 76.280 billion RMB yuan respectively; (3) The sensitivity of ecological value was less than 1, indicating that the ESV of Nujiang Prefecture was inelastic to the ecological coefficient and the results are reliable; (4) In the degree of ecological value change, the degree of forest land change and watershed change was greater than 1, indicating that the change of forest land and watershed exerted a powerful effect upon ESV in Nujiang Prefecture. So, the conclusion demonstrates that Nujiang Prefecture has a small degree of land use change and a high value of ecosystem services. |
| Key words: multiple scenarios PLUS model land use change ecosystem services values Nujiang prefecture |
