陕西省乡村发展水平时空变化及其主导因素分析

ANALYSIS ON SPATIO-TEMPORAL CHANGES OF RURAL DEVELOPMENT LEVEL AND ITS LEADING FACTORS IN SHAANXI PROVINCE

关键词:  乡村发展  主导因素  陕西省  时空变化  地理探测器

Key words:  rural development  domniant factors  Shaanxi province  spatiotemporal change  geographical detector

摘要:

目的 不同区域的乡村因自然禀赋和社会环境存在差异，呈现出异构的变化脉络和发展态势。掌握其影响因素及时空变化情况，有益于探寻因地制宜的乡村发展对策。方法 文章以农村居民可支配收入表征乡村发展水平，利用多元线性回归、地理探测器等模型解析影响县域乡村发展要素的主导因素，分析其时序变化和影响区域分布。结果 （1）陕西省乡村发展水平具有显著的空间集聚特征，该特征随时间变化呈现先上升后下降的趋势；（2）各要素影响力排序结果存在一定差异，但靠前5个因素保持一致；（3）目前乡村发展尚未克服地形因素的阻碍，地区经济发展与人力资本的差异可能继续影响乡村的发展，县区交通基础设施建设逐渐成为乡村发展差异的主要矛盾；（4）不同地区所受的主导要素不同。结论 加强县区自身经济发展、加大基础建设的投资，以及发挥乡村的能动作用并努力提升乡村劳动力质量水平，对乡村可持续发展尤其重要。陕西省各区域乡村发展限制条件有所差异，陕北地区应当注重人力资本的发展，加大教育投资或许是其发展之路；关中地区地区经济总体较好，应当发挥城市的带动作用，以城带乡、以工促农。陕南地区利用其生物与旅游资源的优势，发展特色农业促进乡村发展。

Abstract:

Due to different natural endowment and social environment, there is a heterogeneous change and development trend. It is beneficial to summarize experience and explore the countermeasures of rural development. The disposable income of rural residents was selected to represent the level of rural development, and multiple linear regression, geographical detector and other models were combined to analyze the dominant factors affecting the rural development factors in the county, and analyze their time series changes and regional distribution. The results were listed as follows. (1) The rural development level in Shaanxi province had a significant spatial clustering feature, which rose first and then declined with time; (2) There were some differences between the results of the two models, but the five leading factors remained the same. (3) At present, rural development had not yet overcome the obstacles of topography, the difference between regional economic development and human capital may continue to affect rural development and county traffic infrastructure construction had gradually become the main contradiction of rural development differences.(4) The leading factors were different in different regions. In summary, it is especially important for the sustainable development of rural areas to strengthen the economic development of counties and districts, increase the investment in infrastructure construction, give play to the active role of rural areas and improve the quality of rural labor force. The restriction conditions of rural development in different regions of Shaanxi province are different, the north of Shaanxi should pay more attention to the development of human capital, and more investment in education may be the way to its development. While Guanzhong region has a relatively good economy on the whole, and should play the role of the city as a driving force, with the city leading the countryside and promoting agriculture by industry. The south of Shaanxi province takes advantage of its tourism resources and biological resources to develop characteristic agriculture and promote local development.