四川茶叶适生空间演化以及生产空间响应特征

ADAPTIVE SPATIAL EVOLUTION AND PRODUCTION SPATIAL RESPONSE CHARACTERISTICS OF CAMELLIA SINENSIS IN SICHUAN

关键词:  地理分布  MaxEnt模型  适宜区  种植面积  茶

Key words:  geographical distribution  MaxEnt model  suitability  planting area  Camellia sinensis

摘要:

目的 茶产业已经成为乡村振兴的支柱性产业和贫困山区茶农增收的重要抓手。四川作为中国重要的茶叶产区，预测茶叶适生空间将为生产空间布局优化提供依据。方法 文章基于1980—2020年气候、土壤、地形三方面的环境数据，通过MaxEnt模型构建分布位置和环境变量的关系模型对四川茶叶适生空间进行预测，并结合种植面积探究生产空间对适生空间的响应模式。结果 （1）表明构建的关系模型可信度高，可以预测5个阶段的茶叶适生空间（AUC > 0.9）。影响四川茶叶生长的主要环境变量为海拔、pH、年降水量、坡度、生长季相对湿度，其中海拔430~1 200m，pH 4.4~5.3，年降水量大于1 080mm，坡度小于10°，相对湿度大于78%的区域最适宜茶叶生长。（2）茶叶适生空间多分布于四川盆地西部平原区和盆周山地区，呈“C”字型，1980—2020年适生空间面积在232万~269万hm²，变化趋势整体上呈现波动上升。（3）四川茶叶的适生空间重心演变轨迹整体上呈现“北移”趋势，2000年之后，迁移方向从南移转为北移；生产空间重心变化幅度较适生空间波动性更强。（4）1990—2020年茶叶适生空间面积增加，而生产空间除了面积大幅增加外，还表现出明显的空间聚集性。负响应区域主要集中于川南与川东北两大区域，1990—2020年生产空间与适生空间呈现强负响应的区县数量明显增加。1990年强正响应区域主要聚集在北部，到2020年强正响应区域在空间分布上较为分散。结论 四川茶叶适生空间的面积较广，茶叶发展潜力巨大。

Abstract:

Tea industry has become a pillar industry for rural revitalization and an important starting point for increasing the income of tea farmers in poor mountainous areas. As an important tea producing area in China, the prediction of tea suitable space will provide a basis for the optimization of production space layout. Based on the environmental data of climate, soil and terrain from 1980 to 2020, the relationship model between distribution location and environmental variables was constructed by MaxEnt model to predict the suitable growth space of tea in Sichuan, and the response mode of production space to suitable growth space was explored in combination with planting area. The results were showed as follows. （1）The relationship model had high reliability and could ‘well’ predict the suitable growth space of tea in five stages (AUC > 0.9). The main environmental variables affecting the growth of tea in Sichuan were altitude, pH, annual precipitation, slope and relative humidity in the growing season. The area with an altitude of 430 m to 1 200 m, pH value of 4.4 to 5.3, annual precipitation of more than 1 080 mm, slope of less than 10 degrees and relative humidity of more than 78% was the most suitable for tea growth. （2）The suitable growth space of tea was mostly distributed in the plain area in the west of Sichuan Basin and the mountain area around the basin, in the shape of ‘C’. From 1980 to 2020, the suitable growth space area was from 23 200 to 26 900 square kilometers, and the change trend showed fluctuation and rise as a whole. （3） On the whole, the evolution track of the center of gravity of the suitable growth space of Sichuan tea showed a ‘northward’ trend. And after 2000, the migration direction shifted from south to north; The variation range of the center of gravity in production space is stronger than the fluctuation of the suitable production space. (4) From 1990 to 2020, the suitable space area of tea increased. In addition to the significant increase in the area of production space, it also showed obvious spatial aggregation. The negative response areas were mainly concentrated in southern Sichuan and northeastern Sichuan. From 1990 to 2020, the number of districts and counties with significantly negative response in production space and suitable living space increased significantly. In 1990, the significantly positive response areas were mainly concentrated in the north, and by 2020, the significantly positive response areas were more dispersed in spatial distribution. Therefore, the suitable space area of tea in Sichuan tea is relatively wide, and the development potential of tea is enormous.