中国粮食作物种植变化对省际农业碳排放量的影响研究

RESEARCH ON EFFECTS OF GRAIN CROP PLANTING CHANGES ON AGRICULTURAL CARBON EMISSIONS BETWEEN PROVINCES IN CHINA

关键词:  粮食作物  种植结构  农业碳排放  区域生态补偿  农业结构

Key words:  grain crop  planting structure  agricultural carbon emission  trans-regional ecological compensation  agricultural structure

摘要:

目的 农业碳排放是影响生态环境的重要因素之一，促进我国省际间农业碳排放的相对均衡发展，对加快农业生产中“双碳”目标实现具有重要的现实意义。方法 文章基于1991—2019年粮食作物农用物质投入等统计数据，运用IPCC碳排放系数法，测算粮食主产区和主销区农业碳排放量，运用固定效应模型分析检验我国农业碳排放量的影响因素。结果 （1）我国粮食作物播种面积整体稳定，播种区域逐渐向粮食主产区集中；（2）我国农业碳排放总量持续增加但增速下降，化肥、柴油是主要碳源，碳排放量、碳源及碳排放强度在粮食主产区和粮食主销区差异明显；（3）粮食作物种植面积比重增加对农业碳排放量有明显增进作用，农业效率提高和农业结构优化对碳排放有抑制作用，农业经济发展水平则促进农业碳排放量增长。结论 应加快农业现代化进程，提高农业生产效率；强化化肥、农药、柴油等化学生产要素投入科学标准和使用技术，提高使用效率；实施碳排放补贴政策，建立碳排放区域间补偿机制。

Abstract:

Agricultural carbon emissions are one of the most important factors affecting the ecological environment, and it is of great practical significance to promote the relatively balanced development of agricultural carbon emissions between provinces in China to accelerate the realization of the "Double Carbon" goal in agricultural production. Based on the statistical data of agricultural material inputs of food crops from 1991 to 2019, the article used the IPCC carbon emission coefficient method to measure the agricultural carbon emissions in the main food-producing regions and the main marketing regions, and applied the fixed-effect model to analyze and test the influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions in China. The results were showed as follows. (1) The overall sown area of grain crops in China was stable, and the sown areas were gradually concentrated in the main grain producing areas; (2) China’s total agricultural carbon emissions continued to increase but the growth rate decreased. The carbon emissions and carbon intensity of fertilizer and diesel, as the main carbon sources, differed significantly between the main grain producing areas and the main grain selling areas; (3) The increase in the proportion of the cultivated area of grain crops had a significant enhancement effect on agricultural carbon emissions. The improvement of agricultural efficiency and the optimization of agricultural structure had a suppressive effect on carbon emissions, while the level of agricultural economic development promoted the growth of agricultural carbon emissions. In summary, the modernization of agriculture should be accelerated to improve agricultural production efficiency; scientific standards and techniques for the use of chemical production factors such as fertilizers, pesticides and diesel fuel should be strengthened to improve the efficiency of use; Carbon emission subsidy policies should be implemented and inter-regional compensation mechanisms for carbon emissions should be established.