我国奶业市场结构的量化评估、机制分析及规制理路

QUANTITATIVE EVALUATION, MECHANISM ANALYSIS AND REGULATORY APPROACHES OF CHINA'S DAIRY MARKET STRUCTURE

关键词:  市场结构  量化评估  寡头垄断  规制理路  奶业

Key words:  market structure  quantitative evaluation  oligopoly  regulatory approaches  dairy industry

摘要:

目的 21世纪以来我国奶业快速发展，市场结构不断呈现新状态和新特征。通过综合研判我国奶业市场的结构类型，进而分析我国现阶段市场结构类型形成的动因及影响，并对奶业寡头垄断市场的政府规制理路提出建议。方法 文章基于2001—2020年《中国奶业年鉴》及企业年报整理所得数据，利用行业集中度指数、洛伦兹曲线与基尼系数、赫芬达尔-赫希曼指数、熵指数综合研判了我国奶业市场的结构类型，进而分析形成动因及影响，并结合国内外经验对奶业寡头垄断市场的政府规制理路提出建议。结果 （1）近20年我国奶业市场结构呈现3阶段变化，2004年及以前处于垄断竞争阶段；2005—2016年处于垄断竞争向寡头垄断过渡阶段；2017年及以后进入初级双寡头垄断阶段。（2）我国奶业初级双寡头垄断市场结构是来自市场竞争的自然形成，规模效应、行业壁垒和全球化趋势是寡头垄断市场形成的主因。结论 现阶段我国奶业市场已进入初级的寡头垄断阶段，寡头垄断市场有利有弊，我国应从制度上进行顶层设计，发挥寡头垄断模式的积极作用，减少其负面效应的影响，保障奶业持续健康发展。

Abstract:

Since the new century, China's dairy industry has developed rapidly and the market structure has continuously presented new states and features. Through a comprehensive study of the structural types of China's dairy market, this paper analyzed the causes and effects of China's current market structural types, and put forward some suggestions on the government regulation of the dairy oligopoly market. Based on the data collected from China dairy Yearbook and annual reports of enterprises from 2001 to 2020, this paper comprehensively categorized the structural types of China's dairy market by using Industry concentration index, Lorentz curve and Gini coefficient, Herfindal Hirschman index and entropy index. Then it analyzed the causes and effects of the formation, and put forward suggestions on the government regulation of the dairy oligopoly market in combination with domestic and foreign experience. The results were listed as follows. The structure of the dairy market in China changed in three stages in the last 20 years: Stage 1, it was in the stage of monopoly competition in 2004 and before; Stage 2, from 2005 to 2016, it was in the transitional stage from monopoly competition to oligopoly; Stage 3, in 2017 and beyond, it entered the primary duopoly stage. The primary duopoly market structure of China's dairy industry was the natural formation of market competition. The main reasons for the formation of the oligopoly market were the scale effect, industry barriers and the trend of globalization. In summary, at present, China's dairy market has entered the primary stage of oligopoly. Oligopoly market has its own advantages and disadvantages. So, China should carry out top-level design from the system, give play to the positive role of oligopoly model, reduce its negative effects, and ensure the sustainable and healthy development of dairy industry.