山东省农业现代化发展水平时空演变及障碍因子研究

RESEARCH ON SPATIAL-TEMPORAL EVOLUTION AND OBSTACLE FACTORS OF AGRICULTURAL MODERNIZATION DEVELOPMENT LEVEL IN SHANDONG PROVINCE

关键词:  农业现代化  熵值法  空间自相关  障碍因子  山东省

Key words:  agricultural modernization  Entropy method  space self-correlation  obstacle factor  Shandong province

摘要:

目的 十四五时期，我国将进入农业现代化发展的关键阶段。分析、评价农业现代化发展水平、区域分异特征及障碍因子，有助于科学地把握区域农业现代化的发展规律，更好地推动农业现代化的发展。方法 文章依据现有的研究成果，从农业投入、农业产出、农业科技发展、农业产业化发展、农村社会发展和农业绿色发展6个维度选取21个代表性指标构建了农业现代化评价指标体系，基于2010—2019年山东省统计数据，运用熵值法、空间自相关模型和障碍度模型，分析山东省农业现代化的发展状况以及各地市发展水平的差异，探讨影响农业现代化发展的障碍因子。结果 2010—2019年山东省农业现代化发展水平综合得分由0.143稳步上升到0.778。就区域分异特征而言，鲁东及鲁中地区发展较快，鲁西南地区发展滞后。不同时间段制约农业现代化发展的主要障碍因子有所不同，农业科技成果数量和农产品加工企业个数成为近年来影响其发展的主要障碍因子。结论 提出优化农产品加工产业布局、增强科技创新能力、提升农产品出口质量、落实惠农强农政策和加强区域间的农业交流合作等建议，更好地推动农业现代化的发展。

Abstract:

During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China will step into a key stage of agricultural modernization. Analyzing and evaluating the development level, regional differentiation characteristic and obstacle factors of agricultural modernization is conducive to scientifically grasping the development law of regional agricultural modernization and better promoting the development of agricultural modernization. Based on the existing research results, this research selected 21 representative indicators from six dimensions that included agricultural input and output level, agricultural science and technology development level, agricultural industrialization development level, agricultural social development level and agricultural green development level to build an agricultural modernization evaluation index system. Based on Shandong province statistics from 2010 to 2019, using the Entropy method, space self-correlation model and obstacle degree model method, it analyzed the development situation of agricultural modernization in Shandong province and the differences of various cities, and discussed the obstacle factors affecting the development of agricultural modernization. The results showed that from 2010 to 2019, the comprehensive score of agricultural modernization level in Shandong province steadily increased from 0.143 to 0.778. In terms of regional differentiation characteristics, the east and central of Shandong province region was in fast development, and the southwest region was lagging. The main obstacle factors restricting the development of agricultural modernization were different in different periods of time. The number of agricultural scientific and technological achievements and the number of agricultural products processing enterprises became the main obstacle factors affecting their development in recent years. Therefore, based on the results and findings, suggestions are put forward on optimizing the layout of agricultural products processing industry, enhancing the capacity of scientific and technological innovation, improving the quality of agricultural products export, implementing the policies of benefiting and strengthening agriculture, strengthening agricultural exchanges and cooperation among regions, so as to better promote the development of agricultural modernization.