近60年“二十四节气”起源地气温与降水时空变化特征

ANZLYSIS ON THE CHARACTERISTICS AND CHANGE TENDENCY OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION IN THE ORIGINAL AREA OF "THE 24 SOLAR TERMS" IN RECENT 60 YEARS

关键词:  二十四节气  气候特征  气温与降水  时空变化  晋南地区

Key words:  the 24 solar terms  climate characteristics  temperature and precipitation  spatial and temporal change  the south of Shanxi province

摘要:

目的 “二十四节气”长期以来对晋南农业生产起着重要的指导作用，探究其气候变化特征对农业适应性耕作和种植结构调整存在潜在影响。方法 文章选取1961—2020年尧都区、翼城县、侯马市3个气象代表站逐日气温、降水资料，采用线性趋势、滑动平均、Mann-Kendall分析、F检验等方法，对二十四节气气温、降水时空分布特征及变化趋势进行分析。结果 （1）研究区二十四节气的气温、降水均呈准正态单峰型分布，大暑气温最高，小寒气温最低，降水主要集中在夏至至秋分节气之间。（2）二十四节气的平均气温均呈上升趋势，其中冬季和春季型节气升温趋势极显著，秋季型节气升温趋势显著，夏季型节气升温趋势不明显；最低气温升温趋势极显著，有21个节气升温趋势通过0.01水平的显著性检验；最高气温升温趋势不明显。雨水是一年中升温最大的节气，平均气温变化率为0.729℃/10年（P<0.001）。（3）多年来研究区年平均降水量呈减少趋势，谷雨和夏至两个节气降水减少趋势显著（P<0.05）。（4）反映降水的7个节气平均气温均呈显著升温趋势，升温突变时间集中在20世纪90年代末。反映物候的4个节气中，惊蛰和清明升温趋势极显著，5年平均气温滑动曲线变化为两峰两脊型，2000年以前为相对偏冷期，2000年以后为相对偏暖期；小满和芒种节气升温趋势较弱，20世纪80—90年代有明显谷值区，2000年以后气温明显升高。结论 春初、秋末节气气温显著升高，作物生长季延长，研究成果对适应气候变化，合理利用气候资源，适时调整农事活动和种植结构具有一定的指导意义。

Abstract:

Considering the "24 solar terms" play a significant role in agricultural production for a long time in southern Shanxi province, this paper aims at the study on the potential influence on agricultural adaptive farming and planting structure adjustment based on the characteristics of climate trends of "the 24 solar terms". By analyzing the daily temperature and precipitation data of three meteorological representative stations in Houma city, Yicheng county, and Yaodu district from 1961 to 2020, this study analyzed the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics and the change tendency of the temperature and precipitation during "the 24 solar terms" by linear regression, auto regressive moving average (ARMA) model, Mann-Kendall analysis and F-test etc. The results showed that: (1) Both temperature and precipitation in the 24 solar terms in the study area had a quasi-normal and single-peak distribution. The solar term with the highest temperature was Great Heat and the lowest was Slight Cold. The precipitation mainly occurred from the Summer Solstice to the Autumnal Equinox. (2) The average temperature had an upward trend in every solar term, which was extremely significant in winter and spring, significant in autumn, and not obvious in summer. The lowest temperature had an extremely significant increasing trend since there were 21 solar terms passing the significance test of 0.01 level. The warming trend of the highest temperature was insignificant. With an average temperature change rate 0.729 ℃/10 years (P < 0.001), Rain Water had the fastest rate of temperature rise among the 24 solar terms. (3) The annual average precipitation in the study area showed a decreasing trend for many years, which was significant in Grain Rain and Summer Solstice (P < 0.05). (4) The average temperatures of all 7 solar terms that reflected precipitation exhibited significant warming trends, and the time of sudden warming centers around the end of 1990s. In the four solar terms reflecting the phenology, the warming trend of the Waking of Insects and Qingming was extremely significant. The sliding curve of 5-year average air temperature had two peaks and two ridges, implying that there was a cold period before 2000 and a warm period after 2000. The warming trend was weak in Grain Buds and Grain in Ear. There was an obvious trough period from 1980s to 1990s, and the temperature had increased evidently since 2000. To sum up, the air temperatures of the solar terms in early spring and late autumn rise significantly, extending the period of crop growth. The results have instructive implications for agriculture，including adapting to climate change, making rational utilization of climate resources, and timely adjusting the farming activities and planting structure.