| 摘要: |
| 目的 通过对贵州、广西4个生态帮扶重点县脱贫人口的调查，识别出返贫风险影响因素，深度剖析返贫风险作用机理，全方位为返贫治理提供方向。方法 文章基于脆弱性理论和事故链理论，使用Logistic回归和决策树模型综合判断返贫风险的影响因素，并结合回归分析结果和树形图分析该地区返贫风险生成的作用机理。结果 研究共识别出12个显著影响因素，其中生态帮扶、生态护林员政策是生态帮扶重点县地区特有的影响因素。结论 （1）自然环境问题是诱发石漠化地区农户返贫风险的最直接因素，（2）政策保障对劳动力部分或全部丧失的人群具有重要意义，（3）发展动力是阻断返贫的关键因素，（4）生态护林员政策对有自身发展动力且生态保护意识强的农户更有效，（5）帮扶措施是阻断返贫的有力工具，其中外出务工在阻断返贫风险传导上较其他帮扶措施效果更佳。 |
| 关键词: 生态脆弱区 返贫作用机理 乡村振兴 Logistic回归 决策树模型 |
| DOI：10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20230822 |
| 分类号:F328;F320.3 |
| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金项目“生态脆弱民族地区规模性返贫风险及其防范研究”（22BGL313） |
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| FACTORS INFLUENCING THE RISK OF RETURNING TO POVERTY AND THE MECHANISM OF ACTION IN ROCKY DESERTIFICATION ECOLOGICAL FRAGILE AREA |
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Li He1, Liu Yefei1, Wang Yifan2, Zhao Rong1
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1.Research Institute of Forestry Policy and Information, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China;2.School of Economics and Resource Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
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| Abstract: |
| Through the investigation of the poverty-stricken population in four key counties of ecological assistance in Guizhou and Guangxi, this study attempts to identify the influencing factors of the risk of returning to poverty, and deeply analyzes the mechanism of the risk of returning to poverty, finally provide the direction for the governance of returning to poverty in an all-round way. Based on vulnerability theory and accident chain theory, this study used Logistic regression and decision tree model to comprehensively judge the influencing factors of poverty returning risk, combing regression analysis results and tree diagrams to analyze the mechanism of poverty returning risk generation in this region. A total of 12 significant influencing factors were identified in the study, among which ecological assistance and ecological forest ranger policies were the unique influencing factors in key counties of ecological assistance. The conclusions are showed as follows. (1) Natural environmental problems are the most direct factors that induce the risk of poverty return for farmers in stone desertification areas; (2) Policy protection is important for those who partially or completely lost their labor ability; (3) Development motivation is the key factor to stop poverty return; (4) The ecological forest ranger policy is more effective for farmers who have their own development drive and are conscious of ecological protection. (5) Support measures are a powerful tool to block the return to poverty, and migrant workers are more effective in blocking the transmission of the risk of returning to poverty than other assistances. |
| Key words: ecologically fragile area poverty returning mechanism rural vitalization Logistic regression decision tree model |
