“非粮化”还是“趋粮化”：农地经营规模对种植结构的影响

“NON-GRAIN” OR “GRAIN-ORIENTED”: THE INFLUENCE OF FARMLAND MANAGEMENT SCALE ON PLANTING STRUCTURE

关键词:  农地经营规模  种植结构  地权稳定性  农地流转  调节效应

Key words:  farmland management scale  planting structure  farmland rights stability  farmland transfer  moderating effect

摘要:

目的 农地种植结构与中国粮食安全直接相关，2021年中央农村工作会议指出保证粮食安全要实打实地调整种植结构，因此有必要对农户的种植结构调整决策进行深入研究。方法 文章基于2016年中国劳动力动态调查数据（CLDS），运用OLS回归模型与多元有序Logistic模型，实证分析农地经营规模对种植结构的影响。结果 （1）农地经营规模与种植结构存在“U”型关系，拐点为2.533hm²。当农地经营规模小于拐点时，规模扩大会引起种植结构“非粮化”；当农地经营规模超过拐点后，规模扩大会引起种植结构“趋粮化”。（2）分粮食功能区考察，农地经营规模与种植结构的“U”型关系仍然存在，但在不同粮食功能区产生了不同的种植结构调整效应。（3）地权稳定性对农地经营规模与种植结构调整的“U”型曲线关系具有调节效应。结论 提出发展农机服务市场、协调各区域粮食生产责任、引导农户签订权责明确的土地流转契约、增加政策性种粮补贴、完善农田基础设施建设等建议。研究发现有助于理解农地经营规模与种植结构调整之间的内在机制，确保农户种植行为与国家粮食安全战略相契合。

Abstract:

Farmland planting structure is directly related to China's food security, and the 2021 Central Rural Work Conference points out that ensuring food security requires realistic adjustment of planting structure, so it is necessary to conduct an in-depth study of farmers' planting structure adjustment decisions. Based on the 2016 China Labor Force Dynamics Survey data (CLDS), an OLS regression model and a multivariate ordered logistic model was used to empirically analyze the impact of farmland scale on planting structure. The study found that: Firstly, there was a "U"-shaped relationship between farmland scale and planting structure, with an inflection point of 2.533 hm². When the scale of farmland was smaller than the inflection point, the scale expansion would cause the "non-grain" of planting structure; when the scale of farmland operation exceeded the inflection point, the scale expansion would cause the "grain-oriented" of planting structure. Secondly, the "U" shaped relationship between farmland scale and planting structure still existed in different food functional areas, but different planting structure adjustment effects were produced in different food functional areas. Thirdly, the stability of farmland rights had a moderating effect on the "U"-shaped relationship between farmland scale and planting structure adjustment. Recommendations are made to develop the agricultural machinery service market, coordinate the responsibility of grain production in each region, guide farmers to sign farmland transfer contracts with clear rights and responsibilities, increase grain cultivation subsidies, and improve farmland infrastructure construction. The findings of the study help to understand the intrinsic mechanism between the scale of farmland and planting structure adjustment, and ensure that farmers' planting decisions are aligned with national food security strategies.