辽宁农业灌溉用水影响因素时空差异性研究

STUDY ON SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DIFFERENCES OF FACTORS AFFECTING AGRICULTURAL IRRIGATION WATER USE IN LIAONING PROVINCE

关键词:  农业灌溉用水  需求弹性  时空差异  时空地理加权回归  影响因素

Key words:  agricultural irrigation water  elasticity of demand  spatial-temporal difference  spatio-temporal geographical weighted regression  influencing factors

摘要:

目的 文章基于2000—2019年辽宁农业灌溉用水相关数据，将农业灌溉用水压力、效率、用水价格、种植结构等因素纳入农业灌溉用水需求模型，估计各影响因素对农业灌溉用水需求的影响，更好地保障粮食和水资源安全。方法 利用时空地理加权回归模型研究辽宁各地级市农业灌溉用水影响因素作用的时空差异性。结果 （1）不考虑影响因素作用的时空差异性，用水价格和农村居民人均收入变动对辽宁农业灌溉用水需求的影响特别小。（2）考虑到影响因素作用的时空差异性，除了朝阳和大连，其余各地级市农业灌溉用水需求的价格弹性在2014年前后呈现出负向增大的态势，水价改革还有较大的效力空间。（3）辽宁农业灌溉用水效率和种植结构的回归系数在空间上呈现出中部低，四周高的特点。（4）城镇化程度对农业灌溉用水需求的影响呈现出由东北向西南逐渐递减，由正向较强逐渐向负向较强的演变。结论 依据辽宁农业灌溉用水的各影响因素的作用强度，种植结构、用水效率和城镇化程度是影响辽宁农业灌溉用水需求的主要因素，合理制定城镇化规划对该因素回归系数呈显著上升趋势的地级市尤为重要。

Abstract:

Water is the lifeblood of agriculture and water security is an important guarantee for realizing food security. Liaoning agricultural irrigation water "high water consumption, high pollution" further aggravates the contradiction between life and industrial water, for Liaoning water security, food security brings great hidden troubles. Based on the agricultural data of Liaoning province from 2000 to 2019, factors such as agricultural irrigation water pressure, efficiency, water price and planting structure were incorporated into the agricultural irrigation water demand model to estimate the impact of each factor on agricultural irrigation water demand, so as to better guarantee the security of food and water resources. The spatio-temporal differences of influencing factors of agricultural irrigation water in prefecture-level cities of Liaoning province were studied by using spatio-temporal weighted regression model. The results showed that (1) Without considering the spatiotemporal difference of influencing factors, the change of water price and per capita income of rural residents had little impact on the demand for agricultural irrigation water in Liaoning province. (2) Considering the spatio-temporal difference of influencing factors, the price elasticity of agricultural irrigation water demand in all prefecture-level cities except Chaoyang and Dalian showed a trend of negative increase around 2014, indicating that water price reform still had a large space for effectiveness. (3) The spatial regression coefficient of irrigation water efficiency and planting structure in Liaoning province was low in the middle and high in the surrounding area. (4) The impact of urbanization degree on agricultural irrigation water demand gradually decreased from northeast to southwest, and gradually changed from positive to negative. Therefore, according to the intensity of each influencing factor of agricultural irrigation water in Liaoning province, planting structure, water use efficiency and urbanization degree are the main factors affecting agricultural irrigation water demand in Liaoning province, and it is particularly important to make reasonable urbanization planning for prefecture-level cities with a significant increase in the regression coefficient of urbanization degree.