黄河流域农业灰水足迹与经济增长的关系研究——基于脱钩及回弹效应

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN AGRICULTURAL GREY WATER FOOTPRINT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE YELLOW RIVER BASIN——BASED ON DECOUPLING AND REBOUND EFFECTS

关键词:  农业灰水足迹  经济增长  脱钩模型  回弹效应  黄河流域

Key words:  agricultural grey water footprint  economic growth  decoupling model  rebound effect  Yellow River Basin

摘要:

目的 科学评价水资源环境及其与经济增长之间的矛盾，直接关系到黄河流域水资源可持续利用与农业经济高质量发展。方法 文章以灰水足迹为视角，纳入种植业和畜牧业，全面测算2000－2019年黄河流域农业水资源环境状况；基于“脱钩”的内涵，运用GIS空间分析技术探索黄河流域农业灰水足迹与经济增长关系的时空演变规律；引入无残差完全分解模型对黄河流域经济增长过程中农业灰水足迹的变化进行分解。结果 （1）总体而言，黄河流域农业灰水足迹随经济增长而增加，2013年达到极大值后缓慢下降。（2）黄河流域农业灰水足迹与经济增长的脱钩关系由无序到有序，2019年大多数地区呈强脱钩态势且存在显著的空间集聚特征。（3）2000－2019年约63%的地区在人口效应、经济效应的拉动作用下，农业灰水足迹产生增量效应；约37%的地区在城乡结构效应、技术效应和产业结构效应的抑制作用下，农业灰水足迹产生减量效应。结论 适度提高沿黄地区人口质量、控制经济发展规模以及推动绿色生产方式。

Abstract:

The scientific evaluation of water environment and its contradiction with economic growth is directly related to the sustainable utilization of water resources and the high-quality development of agricultural economy in the Yellow River Basin. In this paper, the agricultural water environment situation was comprehensively calculated from the perspective of grey water footprint, including planting industry and animal husbandry in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2019. Based on the connotation of "decoupling", GIS spatial analysis technology was used to explore the spatial-temporal evolution of the relationship between agricultural grey water footprint and economic growth in the Yellow River Basin. Furthermore, the residual-free complete decomposition model was introduced to decompose the change of agricultural grey water footprint during economic growth. The results showed that: (1) Overall, the agricultural grey water footprint increased with economic growth, and then decreased slowly after reaching the maximum value in 2013. (2) The decoupling relationship between agricultural grey water footprint and economic growth changed from disorder to order in the Yellow River Basin. In 2019, most regions showed a strong decoupling trend and significant spatial agglomeration characteristics. (3) From 2000 to 2019, about 63% of the regions had an incremental effect, the agricultural grey water footprint was driven by population effect and economic effect, about 37% of the regions had a decreased effect, the agricultural grey water footprint was driven by urban-rural structure effect, technological effect and industrial structure effect. Based on the above analysis, this paper suggests that moderately improve the quality of population along the Yellow River moderately, control the scale of economic development and promote the green production mode.