居民收入增长对乳制品消费影响及作用机制研究

RESEARCH ON THE IMPACT AND MECHANISM OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME GROWTH ON DAIRY PRODUCTS CONSUMPTION

关键词:  收入增长  乳制品消费  影响机制  IV-Heckit模型

Key words:  income growth  dairy consumption  influence mechanism  IV-Heckit model

摘要:

目的 优化乳制品消费结构、推动消费方式多元化发展，能够在保持消费总量稳定增长的同时，多途径提升乳制品消费水平，加快乳制品消费转型升级，助力居民营养健康。方法 文章利用2009—2018年“中国健康与营养调查”面板数据，分析了我国居民收入增长对乳制品消费的影响，并着重讨论了城乡之间的因素差异。结果 （1）收入增长可显著提升城乡居民乳制品消费量，在利用IV-Hekit模型克服内生性后，结论依然稳健；（2）收入增长可通过丰富乳品消费种类加快乳品消费结构升级、增加乳品消费频次形成结构化膳食两条路径增加乳制品消费；（3）城市居民收入增长对乳制品消费量的正向作用更明显，城市居民收入增长对乳制品消费种类和消费频次的提升作用约为农村居民的两倍。结论 增加城乡居民对乳制品的消费，需引导居民形成多元化健康饮食方式，带动乳制品加工营养化高值化，推动地方特色乳业发展；强化乳制品消费引导和配送体系建设；组织实施低收入人群营养改善计划，保障弱势群体食物基本供给和营养不断改善。

Abstract:

Optimizing the consumption structure of dairy products and promoting the diversified development of consumption patterns can improve the consumption level of dairy products in multiple ways, accelerate the transformation and upgrading of dairy products consumption, and contribute to residents' nutrition and health while maintaining the stable growth of total consumption. This research analyzed the impact of income growth on dairy consumption of Chinese residents by using panel data of the China Health and Nutrition Survey from 2009 to 2018, and focused on discussing the factor differences between urban and rural areas. The results were listed as follows. (1) Income growth significantly increased the consumption of dairy products of urban and rural residents, and the conclusion was still robust after using IV-Hekit model to overcome the endogeneity problem. (2) Income growth increased dairy consumption by enriching dairy consumption types to accelerate the upgrading of dairy consumption structure, and increasing the frequency of dairy consumption to form structured diet. (3) Compared with rural residents, the positive effect of urban residents' income growth on dairy consumption was more obvious, and the effect of urban residents' income growth on dairy consumption types and frequency was about twice that of rural residents. In summary, to increase the dairy consumption of urban and rural residents, it is necessary to guide the residents to form a diversified and healthy diet, drive the nutrition, high-value processing of dairy products, and promote the development of local characteristic dairy industry, and strengthen dairy products consumption guidance and distribution system construction, in addition, organize and implement the nutrition improvement plan for low-income people and vulnerable groups to ensure the basic food supply and nutrition improvement.