| 摘要: |
| 目的 下击暴流是一种特殊的强风类型，具有强致灾性，已经在世界范围内对大量工程结构和农作物造成破坏，因此对以各地发生概率和致灾损失分析为基础的灾害风险性分析有利于下击暴流强风的风险辨识、灾害评估和风险评价。方法 为研究下击暴流强风对我国各地的灾害影响，文章通过收集我国下击暴流灾害灾情统计资料，建立了下击暴流灾害风险层次分析结构模型，开展了下击暴流灾害风险的区域划分研究。结果 夏季为下击暴流的高发期，我国全年约2/3下击暴流强风灾害都发生在夏季，发生月份主要集中在7月；我国下击暴流强风灾害发生的频次总体分布趋势为中部多，东部次之，西部少；河北省和河南省则是全国下击暴流强风灾害发生频次最高的区域。结论 根据下击暴流强风灾害风险，可以将我国大陆各地划分为下击暴流强风灾害4个风险等级区，其中风险程度最高的一级风险区分布在我国中部和东部部分地区，包括河南省、山东省、河北省、天津市和江苏省。 |
| 关键词: 下击暴流 风灾 风险 层次分析 风险区划 |
| DOI：10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20240210 |
| 分类号:P429 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目“真实气象背景下的下击暴流风场特性与风荷载模型研究”（51308430） |
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| RISK ANALYSIS AND ZONING OF DOWNBURST STRONG WIND DISASTER IN CHINA |
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Xu Beilei1, Tong Xin2, Qiu Penghui3, Xia Zhihao3, Ji Baifeng3
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1.School of Finance and Economics, Wuhan College, Wuhan 430212, Hubei, China;2.China Merchants Port Service (Shenzhen) Co. Ltd, Shenzhen 518068, Guangdong, China;3.Hubei Key Laboratory of Roadway Bridge & Structure Engineering, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, Hubei, China
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| Abstract: |
| Downburst is a special type of strong wind, which occurs in a wide area and is a strong disaster. It caused damage to a large number of engineering structures and agricultural plants in the world. The disaster risk analysis based on the local occurrence probability and disaster loss is conducive to the risk identification, disaster assessment and risk assessment of downburst strong wind. In order to study the impact of downbursts strong wind disasters to China, this research collected statistics on the disasters of downbursts, established a hierarchical analysis structure model of downburst disaster risks, and carried out the research of the risk zoning of downburst disaster. The results showed that, summer was the period of high incidence of downbursts, about two-thirds of downbursts strong wind disasters throughout the year occurred in summer, and the occurrence months were mainly in July. The frequency distribution trend of downburst strong wind disasters in China was the most in the central part, more in the east, and less in the west, and the Hebei province and Henan province were the areas with the highest frequency of downburst strong wind disasters in China. According to the risk zoning results of downburst strong wind disasters, the provinces of China can be divided into four levels of risk areas, of which the most risky first-level risk areas are located in the central and eastern of China, including Henan, Shandong, Hebei, Tianjin and Jiangsu. |
| Key words: downburst wind disaster risk analytic hierarchy process risk zoning |
