中国辛辣类蔬菜出口贸易空间关联与溢出效应——基于RCEP框架下的实证

THE SPATIAL CORRELATION AND SPILLOVER EFFECT OF CHINA'S SPICY VEGETABLE EXPORT TRADE——BASED ON EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE UNDER THE FRAMEWORK OF RCEP

关键词:  RCEP  辛辣类蔬菜  空间关联  溢出效应  空间杜宾模型

Key words:  RCEP  spicy vegetable  spatial association  overflow effect  space Dubin model

摘要:

目的 探讨中国对RCEP伙伴国辛辣类蔬菜的空间关联与溢出效应，揭示中国辛辣类蔬菜外销竞争力情况，促进我国辛辣类蔬菜出口贸易发展，并为相关农产品贸易政策提供借鉴。方法 文章基于反距离平方的权重矩阵测度了各伙伴国经济空间关联程度，并以2011—2020年中国对RCEP伙伴国辛辣类蔬菜的贸易额为面板数据，构建空间杜宾模型，分析中国辛辣类蔬菜出口贸易的空间溢出效应。结果 中国GDP、RCEP伙伴国辛辣类蔬菜总产量、RCEP伙伴国辛辣类蔬菜单产和绿色贸易壁垒程度的空间溢出效应显著为负，且贸易距离整体上对RCEP伙伴国的出口贸易额呈现正向的促进作用，RCEP伙伴国GDP和中国辛辣类蔬菜总产量的空间溢出效应显著为正，中国辛辣类蔬菜单产对中国辛辣类蔬菜出口贸易的空间影响不显著。结论 中国对RCEP伙伴国辛辣类蔬菜出口贸易存在空间负相关关系，即表现出一定的空间聚集现象，建议强化伙伴国空间关联度、优化产品出口结构和完善质量标准体s系。

Abstract:

To explore the spatial correlation and spillover effect of China's spicy vegetables to RCEP partner countries, reveal the export competitiveness of China's spicy vegetables, promote the export trade of China's spicy vegetables, and provide references for relevant agricultural product trade policies. Based on the weight matrix of the inverse distance square, this paper measured the spatial correlation degree of the economies of the partner countries, and taking China's trade volume of spicy vegetables to the partner countries of RCEP from 2011 to 2020 as the panel data, it constructed a spatial Dubin model to analyze the spatial spillover effect of China's spicy vegetable export trade. The results showed that the spatial spillover effects of China's GDP, the total yield of spicy vegetables in the partner countries of RCEP, the per unit yield of spicy vegetables in the partner countries of RCEP and the degree of green trade barriers were significantly negative, and the trade distance on the whole showed a positive role in promoting the export trade volume of RCEP partner countries. The spatial spillover effects of the GDP of the partner countries of RCEP and the total yield of spicy vegetables in China were significantly positive, and the per unit yield of spicy vegetables in China had no significant impact on the export trade of spicy vegetables in China. Therefore, it concludes that there is a negative spatial correlation between China's exports of spicy vegetables to RCEP partner countries, that is, there is a certain phenomenon of spatial aggregation. It is suggested to strengthen the spatial correlation of partner countries, optimize product export structure, and improve the quality standard system.