内蒙古农业经济增长与旅游业发展耦合度分析

ANALYSIS OF THE COUPLING DEGREE BETWEEN AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIC GROWTH AND TOURISM DEVELOPMENT IN INNER MONGOLIA

关键词:  旅游产业  农业经济  协调发展  灰度关联分析  内蒙古

Key words:  tourism industry  agricultural economy  coordinated development  grayscale correlation analysis  Inner Mongolia

摘要:

目的 旅游业为农村经济拓展了新领域，农业经济发展水平是旅游业的基础和保障。文章分别构建内蒙古农业经济和旅游业指标体系，研究两者之间的协调发展关系。方法 选取2010—2019年能充分反映内蒙古旅游业和农业经济发展水平的19个指标数据，运用熵值法和综合指数法测算旅游业和农业经济及其综合发展水平，然后选择灰度关联分析模型，探究两系统之间关联协调发展程度和影响因素。结果 （1）2010—2015年内蒙古农业经济和旅游业发展水平于均呈逐年上升趋势，2015—2019两系统发展水平波动性和变化幅度相对较大。其中，粮食单产、休闲农业产值占比、畜牧业产值占比、第一产业贡献率、乡村从业人员数量指标是造成农业经济系统波动变化的主要因素，旅游业子系统中以星级宾馆和旅行社就业人员下降趋势明显，影响较大。（2）农业经济对旅游业的影响和指标关联度基本处于中等关联等级以上，乡村从业人数A6（0.901）和乡村从业人数A7（0.890）属于高关联程度；旅游业对农业经济的影响，除了旅行社总数指标属于中等关联等级，其他指标均属于中等关联以上等级。结论 得益于资源优势、开放政策、人口红利等，内蒙古农牧业和旅游业均取得了较显著的成绩，但随着传统红利窗口的关闭，不稳定，发展不充足因素开始凸显，未来亟需加强深挖文化资源，创新产品类型，推动产业融合，积极培育人才等发展措施。

Abstract:

The tourism industry expands new fields for the rural economy, and the level of agricultural economic development is the foundation and guarantee of the tourism industry. This research constructed an indicator system for the development of Inner Mongolia's agricultural economy and tourism industry, and studied the coordinated relationship between the two. Selecting 19 indicator data that fully reflected the development level of Inner Mongolia's tourism and agricultural economy from 2010 to 2019, it used the entropy method and comprehensive index method to calculate the tourism and agricultural economy and their comprehensive development level, and selected a gray correlation analysis model to explore the degree of correlation and coordinated development between the two systems and influencing factors. The results were listed as follows. From 2010 to 2015, the development level of Inner Mongolia's agricultural economy and tourism industry showed an increasing trend year by year, while the fluctuation and amplitude of changes in the development level of the two systems from 2015 to 2019 were significant. Among them, grain yield, the proportion of leisure agriculture output，the proportion of animal husbandry output, the contribution rate of the primary industry, and number of rural employees were the main factors that caused fluctuations in the agricultural economic system. In the tourism industry subsystem, the trend of declining employment in star hotels and travel agencies was significant, with a significant impact. (2) There was a strong coupling effect between the agricultural economy and tourism subsystems in Inner Mongolia. In the process of the impact of agricultural economy on the tourism industry, the correlation between various indicators and the agricultural economy subsystem was basically at a moderate level or above, with rural employment A6 (0.901) and rural employment A7 (0.890) being highly correlated; In terms of the impact of the tourism industry on the agricultural economy, except for the indicator of the total number of travel agencies, which belonged to the medium correlation level, all other indicators were above the medium correlation level. In summary, Inner Mongolia's agriculture, animal husbandry and tourism had made remarkable achievements from 2010 to 2019, but it was not entirely the result of resource development and market innovation, but enjoyed the opening, policy and demographic dividend. With the closing of the traditional dividend window, various unstable and insufficient development factors began to highlight, it is urgent for the support of new driving forces, such as strengthening the exploration of cultural resources, innovating product types, promoting industrial integration, and actively cultivate talents.