农户闲置宅基地市场化配置风险感知及其影响因素分析——以成渝地区典型宅改试点为例

ANALYSIS ON FARMER'S RISK PERCEPTION OF MARKET ALLOCATION OF IDLE HOMESTEAD AND ITS INFLUENCING FACTORS——TAKEING THE TYPICAL HOMESTEAD REFORM PILOT IN CHENGDU AND CHONGQING AS AN EXAMPLE

关键词:  闲置宅基地  宅基地市场化  计划行为理论  风险感知  结构方程模型

Key words:  idle homestead  homestead marketization  theory of planned behavior  risk perception  structural equation modeling

摘要:

目的 探究宅基地不同市场化配置模式下农户风险感知及其影响因素。方法 文章基于计划行为理论（Theory of Planned Behavior，TPB）和风险感知理论（Risk Perception，RP），利用成渝典型宅改试点地区1 208份农户问卷数据，借助结构方程模型（Structural Equation Modeling，SEM）进行分析。结果 （1）不同配置模式下，主观规范、知觉行为控制和行为态度均对农户风险感知产生负向影响，且知觉行为控制对风险感知的影响路径系数更大（-0.17）。（2）同一观测变量在不同模式下对农户风险感知影响存在异质性，就地入市中，农户重点关注政府、集体的引导性作用；异地入市中，农户对家庭成员支持度与退地保障机制关注更高。（3）在拓展的TPB模型中，行为态度在两种入市配置模式下对农户风险感知均存在中介作用。结论 不同市场化配置模式下农户对入市风险感知及其影响因素存在差异，未来宅基地市场化配置应遵循“稳慎推进”的总基调，避免同质化、一刀切的模式，因地制宜选择入市模式，凸显闲置宅基地财产价值。

Abstract:

This research is intends to explore the farmers' risk perceptions and the influencing factors under different market-based allocation models for homesteads. Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and Risk Perception Theory (RP), the study analyzed 1 208 questionnaire data from typical pilot areas of homestead reform in the Chengdu-Chongqing region by using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). The results were indicated as follows. (1) Under different allocation models, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control and behavioral attitudes had a negative impact on the risk perception of rural households, with perceived behavioral control having a larger path coefficient (-0.17). (2) The impact of the same observed variables on farmers' risk perception varied across different modes. In the local market mode, farmers paid much attention on the guiding role of the government and collective efforts, while in the off-site market mode, they exhibited higher concern for family support and land withdrawal security mechanisms. (3) In the expanded TPB model, behavioral attitudes served as mediators for farmers' risk perception in both market entry allocation models. In summary, there are differences in the perception of market entry risks and their influencing factors among farmers under different market-oriented allocation modes. So, in the future, the market-oriented allocation of homesteads should follow the overall law of "steady and cautious promotion", avoid homogeneity and a one-size-fits-all approach. Instead, market entry models should be selected based on the local conditions, emphasizing the property value of idle homesteads.