中国式乡村治理现代化测度与空间收敛性研究

MEASUREMENT AND SPATIAL CONVERGENCE OF CHINESE MODERNIZATION OF RURAL GOVERNANCE

关键词:  中国式乡村治理现代化  CRITIC—熵权法  TOPSIS  Kernel密度  空间Markov链  空间收敛

Key words:  Chinese modernization of rural governance  CRITIC—entropy weight method  TOPSIS  Kernel density  spatial Markov chain  spatial convergence

摘要:

目的 基于中国式现代化解读中国式乡村治理现代化的内涵特征，从乡村经济治理、乡村文化治理、生态环境治理、城乡融合治理和基层组织治理5个维度构建中国式乡村治理现代化评价体系，分析中国式乡村治理现代化的发展水平、空间分布特征与空间收敛性。方法 文章运用CRITIC—熵权法组合权重模型和TOPSIS评价模型，选取2010—2020年中国31个省（市、区，不含港澳台）测度中国式乡村治理现代化水平，并借助Kernel密度、空间Markov链和动态空间模型分析中国式乡村治理现代化的时空分布动态与演变趋势。结果 （1）全国乡村治理现代化整体水平稳步上升，2020年略有下降；三大区域乡村治理现代化水平差异显著，呈现“东高西低”发展态势；（2）Kernel密度曲线呈右移趋势，中国乡村治理现代化发展水平差异逐渐缩小；中国乡村治理现代化保持初始状态的稳定性较高，跨越式发展的可能性较小；（3）中国式乡村治理现代化存在正向的空间相关性且呈波动上升态势；全国及三大区域乡村治理现代化发展水平具有显著的绝对β收敛趋势和条件β收敛趋势，不同区域乡村治理现代化发展的β收敛速度具有差异性。结论 最后，提出加快推动乡村治理现代化发展水平提升，加强区域互动，缩小乡村治理现代化的发展差异，制定有梯度的区域乡村治理政策的建议。

Abstract:

This thesis aims to interpret the connotation and characteristics of Chinese modernization of rural governance based on Chinese modernization, and then constructs an evaluation system that includes five dimensions, it focuses on development level, spatial distribution characteristics, and spatial convergence of Chinese modernization of rural governance. To measure the modernization level of rural governance in 31 provinces（cities or regions）in China from 2010 to 2020, the combined CRITIC-entropy weight model and TOPSIS evaluation model were employed, Kernel density, spatial Markov chains, and dynamic spatial models were used to analyze the spatial distribution dynamics and evolution trends of Chinese modernization of rural governance. This study found that: (1) The overall modernization level of rural governance steadily increased, with a slight decline in 2020, and the modernization level in the three major regions differed significantly, exhibiting a development trend of "high in the east and low in the west". (2) The Kernel density curve shifted to the right, indicating a gradual narrowing of disparities in the development levels of Chinese modernization of rural governance; The Markov chain transfer probability matrix indicated the stability of the initial state of Chinese modernization of rural governance was relatively high, with limited possibilities for leapfrog development. (3) Positive spatial correlation existed in the Chinese modernization of rural governance, exhibiting a fluctuating upward trend; The development level of rural governance demonstrated significant absolute β convergence and conditional β convergence trends nationally and in the three major regions, with varying β convergence speeds among different regions. Finally, suggestions are proposed to accelerate the improvement of modernization of rural governance, strengthen regional interactions, reduce the development disparities in rural governance, and establish gradient-based regional rural governance policies.