粮食主产区农业碳排放效率与粮食安全耦合研究

STUDY ON THE COUPLING OF AGRICULTURAL CARBON EMISSION EFFICIENCY AND FOOD SECURITY IN MAJOR GRAIN-PRODUCING AREAS

关键词:  农业碳排放效率  粮食安全  耦合协调  Super-SBM  时空地理加权回归

Key words:  agricultural carbon emission efficiency  food security  coupling coordination  super-SBM  geographically and temporally weighted regression

摘要:

目的 通过分析粮食主产区农业碳排放效率与粮食安全耦合协调度的时空演变及驱动因素，以期提升农业碳排放效率和粮食安全协调发展水平，为农业低碳发展转型提供参考依据。方法 文章基于《中国统计年鉴》《中国农村统计年鉴》以及2007—2019年各省统计年鉴农业投入产出数据，测算农业碳排放效率和粮食安全水平，采用熵权法、耦合协调度模型分析农业碳排放效率和粮食安全的耦合协调度，利用时空地理加权回归模型探究耦合协调度的驱动因素。结果 （1）2007—2019年粮食主产区农业碳排放效率均值呈“波动增长”趋势，农业碳排放量冗余4.43%，仍有一定减排潜力，区域内农业碳排放效率呈现南北高中间低的态势。（2）2007—2019年粮食主产区粮食安全水平呈现上升趋势，空间分布“北高南低”，其中黑龙江处于安全水平，其余省份均低于较安全水平。（3）2007—2019年粮食主产区农业碳排放效率与粮食安全耦合协调度均值呈“稳步上升”发展趋势，从勉强协调转变为中级协调，农业碳排放效率与粮食安全耦合协调性不断增强。粮食主产区农业碳排放效率与粮食安全耦合协调发展类型相对统一，粮食安全是耦合系统的主要限制因素。（4）农业经济发展水平上升、农地流转水平提高可以促进农业碳排放效率与粮食安全的耦合协调度上升；农作物播种结构中粮食种植比重上升、城镇化水平提高以及农业机械动力提升一定程度上会阻碍耦合协调度上升，进而粮食种植方式、农业机械应用以及城镇化趋势应对策略均有待进一步改善。结论 地方应根据现状因地制宜地采取措施，建立农业碳排放效率与粮食安全长期良性协调机制，进而推进农业低碳生产与粮食增产协调发展。

Abstract:

This research aims to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution, as well as driving factors, of the coupling and coordination of agricultural carbon emission efficiency and food security in major grain-producing areas, so as to enhance the coordinated development of agricultural carbon emission efficiency and food security, and provide insights into the low-carbon transition of agriculture. Based on the agricultural input and output data from 2007 to 2019 compiled from the "China Statistical Yearbook," "China Rural Statistical Yearbook," and provincial statistical yearbooks, this study estimated the agricultural carbon emission efficiency and food security levels. Further, it used the entropy weight method and the coupling coordination model to analyze the coupling coordination degree of agricultural carbon emission efficiency and food security. Lastly, it adopted the geographically and temporally weighted regression model to explore the driving factors of the coupling coordination degree. The results were showed as follows. (1) From 2007 to 2019, the average agricultural carbon emission efficiency in major grain-producing areas showed a "fluctuating growth" trend, with an agricultural carbon emission redundancy of 4.43%, indicating a potential for further emission reduction. Within the region, the agricultural carbon emission efficiency level was high in the south and north and low in the middle. (2) In the same time period, the food security level in the major grain-producing areas showed an upward trend, spatially distributed as high in the north and low in the south. For example, Heilongjiang province was at a safe level, while other provinces were all below a relatively safe level. (3) Meanwhile, the average coupling coordination degree of agricultural carbon emission efficiency and food security in the major grain-producing areas increased steadily, transitioning from barely coordinated to moderately coordinated, with the coupling coordination of agricultural carbon emission efficiency and food security continuously strengthening. The development type of coupling coordination of agricultural carbon emission efficiency and food security remained relatively unified, with food security being the main barrier in the coupled system. (4) Results showed that the improvement in agricultural economic development and farmland transfer promoted the increase of the coupling coordination between agricultural carbon emission efficiency and food security. The increases in the planting proportion of grain in the crop planting structure, urbanization level, and agricultural mechanical power would, to some extent, hinder the improvement of the coupling coordination. Therefore, the planting methods of grains, the application of agricultural machinery, and urbanization trend needed further improvement. Therefore, the localities should take measuresaccording to the current situation, and establish a long-term coordination mechanism for agricultural carbon emission efficiency and food security, thereby promote the coordinated development of low-carbon agricultural production and food production.