南方“旱改水”对农户收入的影响研究

PROMOTING INCOME GROWTH AND EXACERBATING DIVERGENCE: THE IMPACT OF DRYLAND-TO-PADDY CONSOLIDATION ON FARMERS’ INCOME IN SOUTHERN CHINA

关键词:  旱改水  农户收入  生计调整  农户异质性  PSM-DID  南方地区

Key words:  dryland-to-paddy consolidation  farmers' income  livelihood adjustment  farmer heterogeneity  PSM-DID  southern China

摘要:

目的 自上而下大规模实施的“旱改水”构成了南方乡村地域系统的重要驱动/干扰因素。及时开展“旱改水”的社会效应评价，诊断其对主要利益人群的影响，对于在共同富裕视域下促进“旱改水”政策优化具有重要现实意义。方法 文章基于湘赣农户微观调查数据，采用PSM-DID模型，实证分析“旱改水”对农户收入的影响及其异质性，厘清具体的作用机制，并识别人力资本改善的调节效应。结果 （1）“旱改水”整体上有助于促进农户增收，其中，非农收入、农业收入和租金收入显著增加，补贴收入无显著变化；（2）“旱改水”显著提高农业专业户和兼业户收入、降低传统纯农户收入，而不影响脱农户收入，存在拉大农户间收入差距的不良社会影响；（3）“旱改水”促进种植结构单一化带来的减收效应小于其促进规模经营、土地转出与劳动力非农化导致的增收效应；（4）人力资本改善有助于强化“旱改水”的农户增收效应。结论 应将农户生计影响评估纳入“旱改水”项目适宜性评价，同时配套劳动力技能培训和就业帮扶政策，建立针对生计转型困难农户群体的兜底保障措施。

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to empirically analyze the impact of dryland-to-paddy consolidation (DPC) on farmers' income and its heterogeneity based on the micro-survey data of farm households in Jiangxi and Hunan province, and clarify the specific mechanism, and then identify the moderating effect of human capital improvement, so as to provide decision-making references for orderly implementation of DPC in southern China. The propensity score matching-differences-in-differences model (PSM-DID), was utilized in this study. The results were showed as follows. (1) The DPC helped farm households increase their income as a whole, with significant increases in non-farm income, farm income and rental income, and no significant changes in subsidy income. (2) The impact of the DPC on farmers' income was heterogeneous, with the income of professional agricultural households and part-time households increasing significantly, the income of traditional pure farm households decreasing significantly, and the income of off-farm households not changing significantly, resulting in the negative social impact of widening the income gap between farmers. (3) The income reduction effect brought by the DPC through promoting the monoculture of planting structure was smaller than its income increase effect brought by boosting larger-scale operations, land transfers out and labor off-farm transfers. (4) Human capital improvement was helpful to strengthen the income growth effect of DPC for farmers. In conclusion, although DPC in southern China can help promote farmers' income as a whole, it also exacerbates income divergence among farmers. Therefore, it is recommended to incorporate the livelihood impact assessment of farmers into the suitability evaluation of DPC projects, acquire supporting policies of labor skills training and employment assistance, and establish guarantee measures for farmer households with livelihood transition difficulties.