我国畜牧业风险研究进展及未来展望

RESEARCH PROGRESS AND FUTURE OUTLOOK ON RISK IN CHINA'S LIVESTOCK INDUSTRY

关键词:  畜牧业  风险  风险评估  研究综述  展望

Key words:  livestock industry  risk  risk assessment  research review  outlook

摘要:

目的 通过系统梳理畜牧业风险相关研究进展，分析现有研究可能存在的不足，在此基础上提出该领域未来研究展望，以期丰富我国畜牧业风险领域的研究。方法 文章采用文献分析法和总结归纳法，从畜牧业风险的定义及类型、评估、管理策略等三方面对该领域相关研究进行综述。结果 （1）畜牧业风险在定义要点和风险类型划分上和农业风险存在共性，研究侧重养殖风险、养殖户面临风险类型，缺乏对畜牧业风险的严格定义和对畜牧产业链多环节、多主体风险的系统识别和认知。（2）畜牧业风险评估主要从风险类型（自然风险、市场风险、疫病风险）视角展开，评估对象不够全面系统，不同视角的评估各有侧重，缺乏畜牧业风险综合评估，评估方法研究也有待探索。（3）畜牧业风险管理宏观主体（政府）和微观主体（养殖户）采取了多种策略，但已有研究未能及时追踪风险管理工具和策略有效性变化情况，缺乏对新型风险管理工具的效果的研究，不同管理工具和策略的相关性研究也不足。结论 该文认为未来可以丰富畜牧业风险理论研究，识别比较不同特征下的畜牧业风险差异；充实畜牧业风险评估内容，开展综合风险评估，弥补不同畜种风险和单种风险评估的不足；优化畜牧业风险评估方法，构建综合风险评估体系，创新不同类型风险评估的具体方法，发展定量评估；评估并跟踪畜牧业风险管理策略实施效果，完善风险管理工具和策略的相关性研究四方面开展深入研究。

Abstract:

This research aims to elevate the research in the field of livestock risk in China by systematically sorting out the progress of research related to livestock risk, and analyze the possible shortcomings of existing research, so as to propose future research prospects in this field. The literature analysis method and the summary and induction method were adopted to review relevant research from three aspects, including the definition and types of livestock risks, assessment and management strategies. The results were showed as follows. (1) Commonalities existed between livestock risks and agricultural risks in terms of definition points and risk types of classification but focusing on breeding risks and types of risks faced by farmers, the research failed to provide a specific definition of livestock risks as well as systematic identification and cognition of risks of multiple links and subjects in the livestock industry chain. (2) The risk assessment of the animal husbandry industry predominantly revolved around the categorization of risk types, namely natural risk, market risk, and disease risk. However, the assessment object lacked comprehensiveness and systematic depth. Evaluations from distinct perspectives tended to concentrate on specific aspects, thus resulting in an absence of a holistic appraisal of the animal husbandry industry's risks. Moreover, there was a gap in comprehensive assessments, and the methodologies employed for assessment should be further explored. (3) A variety of strategies had been adopted by macro (government) and micro (farmers) actors in livestock risk management, but changes in the effectiveness of risk management tools and strategies had not been tracked promptly. Besides, there was still a lack of research on the effects of new risk management tools, as well as insufficient research on the relevance of different management tools and strategies. In summary, this study hereby proposes that future research can be conducted from four aspects, namely, enriching the theoretical study of livestock risk, identifying and comparing differences in livestock risk under different characteristics; enriching the content of livestock risk assessment, carrying out comprehensive risk assessment, and making up for the deficiencies of risk of different livestock species and single species risk assessment; optimizing livestock risk assessment methods, constructing a comprehensive risk assessment system, innovating specific methods for different types of risk assessment, and developing quantitative assessment; and evaluating and tracking the effect of the implementation of risk management strategies in the livestock industry, and improving the relevance of risk management tools and strategies.