黄淮海地区农业社会化服务对农业全要素生产率的影响及空间溢出效应

THE INFIUENCE OF AGRICULTURAL SOCIALIZATION SERVICE ON AGRICULTURAL TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY AND ITS SPATIAL SPILLOVER EFFECT IN HUANG-HUAI-HAI REGION

关键词:  黄淮海地区  农业社会化服务  农业全要素生产率  空间相关性  溢出效应

Key words:  Huang-Huai-Hai region  agricultural socialization service  agricultural total factor productivity  spatial autocorrelation  spillover effect

摘要:

目的 黄淮海地区是我国粮食主产区，也是农业优先发展的核心区。通过分析黄淮海地区农业社会化服务的时空演化规律，研究农业社会化服务对农业全要素生产率的影响机制及其空间溢出效应，为实现区域社会化资源高效利用提供参考依据。方法 文章基于2010—2020年黄淮海地区5个农业大省73个地级市面板数据，通过熵权法和复相关系数测算农业社会化服务指数，借助固定效应模型和空间杜宾模型探究农业社会化服务对农业全要素生产率的影响及空间效应。结果 （1）黄淮海地区农业社会化服务总体呈上升趋势，但具有明显地区差异，呈现出中型城市集聚发展的空间特征；（2）农业社会化服务发展有显著空间自相关，但空间差异随时间演进呈逐渐缩小趋势；（3）农业社会化服务对本地农业全要素生产率有显著正向提升作用，但受到消费水平、农村人口、教育水平等因素影响；（4）农业社会化服务对毗邻地区全要素生产率存在正向溢出效应，但山东区划溢出效应不显著。结论 黄淮海地区农业社会化服务发展对农业全要素生产率增长有显著影响，建议加强农业要素市场化配置改革，构建区域农业社会化服务产业链利益共同体，实施农业社会化服务区域联动与协同发展战略。

Abstract:

Huang-Huai-Hai area is the main grain producing area in China, and also the core area of agricultural development. This study investigates the mechanisms and spatial spillover effects of these services on agricultural total factor productivity by analyzing the evolutionary patterns of agricultural socialized services in the Huang-Huai-Hai region, aiming to provide insights for achieving efficient utilization of regional resources. Based on panel data from 73 prefecture-level cities in five major agricultural provinces within the Huang-Huai-Hai region from 2010 to 2020, the agricultural socialization services index was calculated by using the entropy weight method and multiple correlation coefficient. Furthermore, the fixed effect model and spatial Durbin model were employed to explore the influence and spatial effects of agricultural socialization services on agricultural total factor productivity. The findings can be summarized as follows: (1) The overall trend of agricultural socialized services was upward; however, significant regional disparities existed with a concentration development pattern observed in medium-sized cities. (2) There was substantial spatial autocorrelation in the development of agricultural socialization services; nevertheless, these spatial differences gradually diminished over time. (3) Local agricultural total factor productivity was significantly positively influenced by agricultural socialization services; however, this effect was contingent upon factors such as levels of social consumption, rural population size, and education level among others. (4) The spillover effect of agricultural socialized services on adjacent areas' total factor productivity was positive; nonetheless, the spillover effect of Shandong regionalization was not significant. Therefore, the conclusion drawn from this paper underscores that the development of agricultural socialized services within the Huang-Huai-hai area exerts a significant impact on enhancing agriculture's overall efficiency. It is recommended to enhance the market-oriented reform in allocating regional agricultural factors, establish a community of interests within the socialized service industry chain of regional agriculture, and implement a strategy for regional linkage and collaborative development in agricultural socialized services.