内蒙古自治区畜牧业碳排放动态演变及公平性分析

DYNAMIC EVOLUTION AND FAIRNESS ANALYSIS OF CARBON EMISSIONS FROM ANIMAL HUSBANDRY IN INNER MONGOLIA AUTONOMOUS REGION

关键词:  畜牧业  碳排放  动态演变  公平性  内蒙古

Key words:  animal husbandry  carbon emissions  dynamic evolution  fairness  Inner Mongolia

摘要:

目的 研究畜牧业碳排放动态时空演变，测度区域间公平性，促进畜牧业低碳、绿色和现代化转型。方法 文章基于2000—2021年内蒙古自治区12个盟市的相关面板数据，运用IPCC排放因子法计算的畜牧业碳排放量，用核密度估计方法与莫兰指数空间相关性分析方法分析了碳排放时空演变，最后从畜牧业碳排放经济效率与生产效率两个维度运用洛伦兹曲线构建碳排放公平性评价模型，来分析畜牧业碳排放的公平性情况。结果 （1）研究期内内蒙古自治区畜牧业碳排放呈现波动上升趋势，核密度曲线表明各盟市碳排放由集中向分散演化，区域间差异性加强。（2）研究期内内蒙古自治区盟市间区域空间相关性不断增强，呼和浩特市减碳效果最为突出，锡林郭勒盟畜牧业碳排放涨幅最为明显。（3）内蒙古自治区畜牧业碳排放经济效率的基尼系数为0.44，生产效率的基尼系数为0.42，均超过了0.4的警戒线，畜牧业碳排放公平性低。从经济效率与生产效率对畜牧业碳排放公平性分类结果为：呼和浩特市、包头市、乌海市、赤峰市、巴彦淖尔市和乌兰察布市属于“高一高”型；兴安盟属于“低一高”型；锡林郭勒盟属于“高一低”型；通辽市、鄂尔多斯市、呼伦贝尔市和阿拉善盟属于“低一低”型。结论 内蒙古自治区可以通过建立完善畜牧业碳减排的相关政策；优化饲料配比与管理方式；建立畜牧业低碳示范园区；建立畜牧业碳排放权交易市场等方式来促进畜牧业低碳发展。

Abstract:

To study the spatiotemporal evolution of carbon emissions from animal husbandry in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, measure the equity between regions, and promote the low-carbon, green and modern transformation of animal husbandry in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. Based on the relevant panel data from 2000 to 2020, the carbon emission coefficient method was used to calculate the carbon emissions of animal husbandry in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, and the nuclear density estimation method and the Moran index spatial correlation analysis method was adopted to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution of carbon emissions in 12 league cities in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, then the Lorentz curve of animal husbandry carbon emissions was used to construct a carbon emission fairness evaluation model from the two dimensions of economic efficiency and production efficiency. The results were showed as follows. (1) During the study period, the carbon emissions of animal husbandry in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region showed a fluctuating upward trend, and the nuclear density curve showed that the carbon emissions of each league city evolved from concentrated to scattered, and the regional differences were strengthened. (2) During the study period, the regional spatial correlation between the leagues and cities of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region continued to increase, and the carbon reduction effect of Hohhot city was the most prominent, and the carbon emissions of animal husbandry in Xilin Gol league increased the most. (3) The Gini coefficient of the economic efficiency of carbon emissions of animal husbandry in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region was 0.44, and the Gini coefficient of production efficiency was 0.42, both exceeding the warning line of 0.4, and the fairness of carbon emissions in animal husbandry was low. The results of the fair classification of carbon emissions from animal husbandry economic efficiency and production efficiency showed that Hohhot city, Baotou city, Wuhai city, Chifeng city, Bayannur city and Ulanqab city belonged to the "high-high" type. Xing'an Meng belonged to the "low-high" type; Xilin Gol league belonged to the "high-low" type; Tongliao city, Ordos city, Hulunbuir city, Alxa league belonged to the "low-low" type. Therefore, the government can establish and improve relevant policies for carbon emission reduction in animal husbandry, optimize feed ratio and management methods, and establish low-carbon demonstration parks for animal husbandry, which will be gradually realized in sub-regions with points, establish internal livestock carbon emission trading markets among various leagues and cities, so as to promote the low-carbon development of animal husbandry in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.