农业保险发展的碳减排效应——理论机制与实证检验

CARBON REDUCTION EFFECT OF AGRICULTURAL INSURANCE DEVELOPMENT——THEORETICAL MECHANISM AND EMPIRICAL TESTING

关键词:  农业保险  绿色转型  碳排放  专业化种植  农业技术进步  门槛效应

Key words:  agricultural insurance  green transformation  carbon emission  specialized planting  agricultural technology progress  threshold effect

摘要:

目的 在推进农业农村领域减排降碳的背景下，探究农业保险对农业生产碳排放的影响及作用机制，对助力我国实现“2030碳达峰”目标具有重要现实意义。方法 文章基于2008—2022年中国省级面板数据，运用双向固定效应模型、面板门槛模型和面板分位数模型，实证考察农业保险发展对农业生产碳排放的影响和作用机制。结果 （1）农业保险发展显著促进农业生产碳减排，该结论在经过内生性处理以及系列稳健性检验后仍然成立。（2）农业保险发展的碳减排效应存在以政府补贴力度为前提的门槛效应。当政府补贴力度较低时，农业保险发展对农业生产碳排放无显著影响；只有政府补贴力度达到一定门槛值后，农业保险才会发挥碳减排作用。（3）机制分析表明，农业保险主要通过促进专业化种植和技术进步实现农业生产碳减排。（4）随着农业生产碳排放量的降低，农业保险发展的碳减排效应逐渐减弱。结论 应通过财政补贴方式继续全面推广农业保险，引导农户转向专业化、绿色化生产，以推动农业低碳转型。

Abstract:

Against the background of promoting carbon reduction in the agricultural industry and rural areas, investigating the impact of agricultural insurance on agricultural carbon emissions is of significant practical importance for aiding China in achieving its "carbon peak by 2030" target. Based on a province-level panel dataset from 2008 to 2022, this paper investigated the association and underlying mechanisms between agricultural insurance development and carbon emissions of agricultural production by using the two-way fixed effect model, the panel threshold model and the panel quantile model. The results were showed as follows. (1) The development of agricultural insurance significantly reduced the carbon emissions of agricultural production, which was valid after a series of robustness and endogenous tests. (2) The above-mentioned impact had an obvious threshold effect. Agricultural insurance could only reduce carbon emissions when the government subsidy reached a certain threshold. However, when the government subsidies were low, it had no significant impact on the carbon emissions of agricultural production. (3) The carbon reduction effect of agricultural insurance development was mainly achieved by improving planting specialization and agricultural technology. (4) With the reduction of agricultural carbon emissions, the carbon reduction effect of agricultural insurance development gradually diminished. Therefore, the government should continuously and comprehensively promote agricultural insurance via financial subsidies, guide farmers to switch to specialized and green production, thereby promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of agriculture.