科技进步对马铃薯单产的影响：全要素生产率视角

THE IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS ON POTATO YIELD: FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY

关键词:  马铃薯  单产  科技进步  全要素生产率  区域差异

Key words:  potatoes  per unit yield  technological progress  total factor productivity  regional differences

摘要:

目的 研究科技进步对马铃薯单产的影响，为提升单产水平提供路径借鉴。方法 文章使用2011—2021年16个主产省份的马铃薯成本收益数据，运用索洛余值法测算广义科技进步对马铃薯单产的贡献，运用DEA-Malmquist指数测度马铃薯全要素生产率及其变化来源构成。结果 （1）2021年广义的技术进步对马铃薯单产的贡献份额为59.25%，处于较高水平。（2）2011—2021年我国马铃薯全要素生产率呈现持续下降而后恢复上升并保持稳定的特征。其中，2011—2012年降幅最大，源于技术进步贡献率下降；2020—2021年的上升源于技术进步和技术效率的双驱动。（3）五大产区分析显示，南部产区全要素生产率整体上呈现年均上升态势，年均涨幅2.1%，主要源于技术进步；其余4个产区呈现年均下降态势，其中西南产区年均降幅最大，为2.9%，技术进步的下降起到决定作用；技术进步和技术效率变化对东北产区下降都有作用，但仍以技术进步变化影响为主。（4）2011—2021年16个主产省份中马铃薯全要素生产率年均出现涨幅的省份有6个，按排名分别为新疆、四川、宁夏、湖北、黑龙江和山西，但增长来源不同，新疆和黑龙江以纯技术效率贡献为主，四川和山西以规模效率贡献为主，技术进步变化主导宁夏和湖北全要素生产率的上升；其余10个主产省份全要素生产率年均变化均出现不同程度下降，下降来源存在差异，华北产区的河北和山东、西南产区的贵州和云南、西北产区的甘肃和青海马铃薯全要素生产率下降主要源于技术进步，东北产区的内蒙古马铃薯全要素生产率下降主要源于规模效率，而辽宁、重庆和陕西则是受到技术进步和技术效率的双重拖累。结论 加大优质脱毒种薯的研发和推广力度，推广机械化种植技术，走规模化、集约化道路，精准控药，加快高产技术的研究和提高薯农的技术知识水平。

Abstract:

This research aims to explore the impact of technological progress on potato yield and then find ways to improve potato yield levels. Based on the potato cost-benefit data of 16 major provinces in China from 2011-2021, Solow residual method was used to measure the contribution of generalized technological progress to potato yield, and DEA-Malmquist index was used to measure the total factor productivity of potatoes and its change source composition. The results were showed as follows. (1) In 2021, the contribution of generalized technological progress to potato yield was 59.25%, which was at a relatively high level. (2) In 2011-2021, the total factor productivity of potatoes continued to decline and then recovered to rise and remained stable. Among them, the largest decline occurred from 2011 to 2012, due to the decrease in the contribution rate of technological progress; the increase from 2020 to 2021 was driven by both technological progress and technological efficiency. (3) The analysis of the five major production areas showed that the overall total factor productivity of the southern production areas showed an average annual increase trend, with an average annual increase of 2.1%, mainly due to technological progress; the other four production areas showed an average annual decline trend, with the southwest production area having the largest annual decline of 2.9%, and the decline in technological progress played a decisive role; Both the changes in technological progress and technological efficiency had an impact on the decline of the northeast production area, but the impact was still mainly due to changes in technological progress. (4) Among the 16 major producing provinces in 2011-2021, there were 6 provinces with an average annual increase in total factor productivity of potatoes, which were ranked as Xinjiang, Sichuan, Ningxia, Hubei, Heilongjiang and Shanxi, and scattered in the five production areas, but the sources of increase were different. Xinjiang and Heilongjiang were mainly contributed to pure technical efficiency, Sichuan and Shaanxi were mainly contributed to scale efficiency, and technological progress led to the increase in total factor productivity of Ningxia and Hubei. The average annual change in total factor productivity of the remaining 10 main producing provinces showed varying degrees and different sources of decline. The decline in total factor productivity of potatoes in Hebei and Shandong in the northern production area, Guizhou and Yunnan in the southwest area, and Gansu and Qinghai in the northwest area were mainly due to technological progress, while the decline in Inner Mongolia was mainly due to scale efficiency. Liaoning, Chongqing and Shaanxi were dragged down by both technological progress and technological efficiency. In summary, it should develop and promote the high-quality virus-free seed potatoes, expand mechanized planting techniques, and take the path of scale and intensification, accurately control the utilization of pesticides, then accelerate the research of high-yield technologies, raise the scientific and cultural level of potato farmers.