| 摘要: |
| 目的 将水—能源—粮食纽带关系（Water-Energy-Food Nexus，WEF-Nexus）纳入区域生态系统服务评估研究，探究基于WEF-Nexus视角的区域生态系统服务供需关系及其驱动因素，将有助于区域自然资源与生态环境的可持续发展。方法 文章采用InVEST（Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs）模型、人口空间化方法和供需匹配度等测度2007—2020年苏州市WEF-Nexus视角下生态系统服务的供给、需求及供需关系，利用随机森林和地理加权回归模型分析驱动因素对供需关系的影响。结果 （1）研究期间苏州市产水服务由供不应求转为供大于求状态，且供需空间错配逐渐得到改善，固碳服务和粮食生产服务均处于供不应求状态，且供需空间错配日益严峻；（2）城镇中心区生态系统服务供需缺口逐年增大，而对于人口分布较分散、生态背景较好的周边郊区，供需存在盈余；（3）自然地理和人类社会因素对不同生态系统服务的供需关系影响存在差异，其中人口密度是最关键的驱动因素。结论 分别从供给、需求和供需综合3个维度提出了基于WEF-Nexus视角的区域生态系统管控政策，为指导区域自然资源与生态系统综合管理提供参考。 |
| 关键词: 水—能源—粮食纽带关系 生态系统服务 供需 数量关系 空间关系 驱动因素 |
| DOI：10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20250910 |
| 分类号:X24 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目“水—能源—粮食—生态纽带关系下区域高质量发展诊断预警及治理策略研究——以长三角城市群为例”（42071278） |
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| SUPPLY-DEMAND RELATIONSHIP AND DRIVING FACTORS OF REGIONAL ECOSYSTEM SERVICES: FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE WATER-ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS |
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Ding Tonghui1, Chen Junfei2,3,4, Yang Xinze5
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1.School of Economics and Finance, Hohai University, Changzhou 213200, Jiangsu, China;2.Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, Jiangsu, China;3.Institute for Ecological Civilization Construction and Watershed Protection, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, China;4.Jiangsu Research Base of Yangtze Institute for Conservation and High-quality Development, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, China;5.College of Business and Economics, the Australia National University, Canberra ACT 2600, Australia
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| Abstract: |
| Integrating water-energy-food nexus (WEF-Nexus) into the assessment of regional ecosystem services, and exploring the supply-demand relationship and its driving factors of regional ecosystem services from the perspective of the WEF-Nexus will be conducive to the sustainable development of regional natural resources and ecological environment. The supply, demand and supply-demand relationship of ecosystem services from the perspective of the WEF-Nexus in Suzhou from 2007 to 2020 were assessed by using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, population spatialization method and supply-demand matching degree. Then the effects of multiple driving factors on the supply-demand relationship of ecosystem services were analyzed by using the random forest model and geographical weighted regression model. The results showed that: (1) During the study period, water yield in Suzhou had changed from short supply to oversupply, and the supply-demand spatial mismatch had been gradually improved. Both carbon storage and food production had always been in short supply, and the supply-demand spatial mismatch had been increasingly serious. (2) The gap between supply and demand of ecosystem services in urban central areas was increasing year by year, while there was a surplus between supply and demand in the surrounding suburbs with more dispersed population distribution and better ecological background. (3) There were differences in the effects of physical geography and human social factors on the supply-demand relationship of different ecosystem services, among which population density was the most critical driving factor. Therefore, policy suggestions on regional ecosystem management from the WEF-Nexus perspective are proposed from three dimensions—supply, demand, and supply-demand integration, providing a reference for guiding integrated natural resource management." |
| Key words: water-energy-food nexus ecosystem services supply-demand quantitative relationship spatial relationship driving factors |
