农村劳动力转移正规就业对土地流转的影响效应研究

THE IMPACT OF RURAL LABOR TRANSFER TO FORMAL EMPLOYMENT ON LAND CIRCULATION

关键词:  农村劳动力转移  就业类型  正规就业  土地流转  城市融入

Key words:  rural labor transfer  employment type  formal employment  land transfer  urban integration

摘要:

目的 在新型城镇化加速推进与人口跨区域流动常态化背景下，文章聚焦农村劳动力向城市转移过程中就业类型分化的典型现象，系统考察农村劳动力转移至正规就业对土地流转的影响效应，并揭示其作用机制，旨在为推动农村土地合理流转和优化乡村治理提供对策建议。方法 基于2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查（CMDS）数据，运用Probit模型估计农村劳动力转移至正规就业对土地流转的边际影响，并借助中介效应模型探究其作用路径。结果 （1）农村劳动力转移至正规就业对土地流转具有显著的正向影响。具体而言，当农村劳动力从非正规就业向正规就业转变时，其家庭土地流转概率提高7.96%，且该结论经稳健性检验后依然成立。（2）机制分析表明，农村劳动力转移正规就业主要通过收入替代效应、城市融入效应和转移就业意愿效应3条路径影响土地流转。（3）异质性分析发现，农村劳动力转移至正规就业，在东部、中部和西部地区均对土地流转概率有显著正向作用，其中中部地区效应最大，东部地区效应最小。从代际差异看，正规就业能显著提升新生代农村转移劳动力土地流转概率，而对第一代农村转移劳动力这一影响不显著。结论 规范农村劳动力转移就业市场、完善就业稳定机制，推动农村劳动力向正规就业，是促进农村土地合理流转和提升乡村治理效能的重要路径。

Abstract:

Against the backdrop of accelerated new urbanization and normalized cross regional population mobility, this research aims to focus on the typical phenomenon of employment type differentiation in the process of rural labor force transferring to cities, systematically examines the impact of rural labor force transferring to formal employment on land transfer and reveals its mechanism, so as to provide countermeasures and suggestions for promoting rational rural land transfer and optimizing rural governance. Based on the 2017 China Mobile Population Dynamic Monitoring Survey (CMDS) data, the Probit model was used to estimate the marginal impact of rural labor migration to formal employment on land transfer, and the mediation effect model was used to explore its pathway of action. The results were found as follows. (1) The transfer of rural labor to formal employment had significantly positive effects on land circulation. Specifically, when rural labor shifted from informal employment to formal employment, the probability of household land transfer rose by 7.96% significantly. This conclusion still held true after robustness testing. (2) Mechanism analysis showed that the transfer of rural labor to formal employment affected land transfer mainly through three avenues: Income substitution effect, urban integration enhancement effect, and transfer employment willingness enhancement effect. (3) Heterogeneity analysis showed that formal employment had significantly positive effects on the land transfer probability of rural employed labor in the eastern, central, and western regions with the central the biggest and the western the smallest. Based on intergenerational differences, formal employment could significantly increase the probability of land transfer among new-generation rural labor transfer, while this effect was not significant for the first-generation rural labor transfer. Therefore, standardizing the rural labor transfer employment market, improving the employment stability mechanism, and promoting the formal employment transformation of rural labor are important ways to promote the rational transfer of rural land and enhance the efficiency of rural governance.