山西省农业碳排放演化趋势及影响因素研究

THE EVOLUTION TREND AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF AGRICULTURAL CARBON EMISSIONS IN SHANXI PROVINCE

关键词:  农业碳排放  低碳农业  R/S分析  LMDI模型  山西省

Key words:  agricultural carbon emissions  low-carbon agriculture  R/S analysis  LMDI model  Shanxi province

摘要:

目的 农业的可持续高质量发展离不开农业低碳化，探析山西省农业碳排放演化趋势及影响因素，旨在完善相关研究并为政策制定提供参考，以期推动山西省农业高质量发展。方法 文章借助碳排放因子法、R/S分析法和LMDI模型，估算2003—2022年山西省农业碳排放量及强度，探析其演化趋势和平均循环周期，分析碳排放影响因素。结果 （1）2003—2022年山西省农业碳排放总量呈“迅速降低—稳定波动”态势，农业碳排放强度呈“急速降低—缓慢持续下降”特征。（2）禽畜养殖为山西省农业最大碳源，其变化趋势与碳排放总量相似，其中各碳排因子碳排量：牛（48%）>羊（44%）>猪（7%）>家禽（1%）；农资投入为第二大碳源，呈先缓升后缓降趋势，其中各碳排因子碳排量：化肥（52%）>灌溉（19%）>农膜（12%）>柴油（9%）>农药（7%）>灌溉（1%）；农作物种植碳排量影响最小，20年间保持低位平稳变动。（3）R/S分析表明，山西省农业碳排放具有强持续性，未来趋势将延续历史。碳排放总量、农资投入、农作物种植和畜禽养殖的平均循环周期分别约为15年、12年、12年和15年。（4）2003—2022年山西省农业经济发展水平促进了碳排放，而农业产业结构、生产效率和劳动力则抑制了碳排放，四大因素共同作用导致23.98万t碳减排。影响效应排序：农业经济发展水平>农业生产效率>农业劳动力>农业产业结构。结论 近20年山西省农业碳减排成效显著，碳排放总量与强度双重下降，农业结构有所优化。但农业经济发展与碳减排的平衡仍是挑战，需进一步优化畜牧业结构、提高农业生产效率、减少农资投入碳排放，以实现农业发展与碳减排双赢。

Abstract:

Sustainable high-quality agricultural development cannot be achieved without the low-carbon transformation of agriculture. This study explores the evolution trends and influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions in Shanxi province, aiming to improve relevant research and provide references for policy formulation, with the goal of promoting high-quality agricultural development in Shanxi province. Utilizing the carbon emission factor method, R/S analysis method, and LMDI model, this study estimated the agricultural carbon emissions and intensity in Shanxi province from 2003 to 2022, explored their evolution trends and average cyclical periods, and analyzed the influencing factors of carbon emissions. The results were listed as follows. (1) From 2003 to 2022, the total agricultural carbon emissions in Shanxi province showed a trend of "rapid decrease - stable fluctuation," while the agricultural carbon emission intensity exhibited a characteristic of "sharp decrease - slow and continuous decline." (2) Livestock and poultry farming was the largest carbon source in Shanxi province's agriculture, with a trend in changes similar to the total carbon emissions. The carbon emission volume of various carbon emission factors was as follows: cattle (48%) > sheep (44%) > pigs (7%) > poultry (1%); agricultural input was the second-largest carbon source, showing a trend of first rising slowly and then decreasing moderately, with the carbon emission volume of various carbon emission factors as follows: fertilizers (52%) >irrigation (19%) > agricultural film (12%) > diesel (9%) > pesticides (7%) > irrigation (1%); the carbon emissions from crop planting had the least impact, remaining low and stable over the past two decades. (3) R/S analysis indicated that agricultural carbon emissions in Shanxi Province exhibited strong persistence, and future trends would continue to reflect historical patterns. The average cyclical periods for total carbon emissions, agricultural inputs, crop planting, and livestock breeding were approximately 15 years, 12 years, 12 years, and 15 years, respectively. (4) From 2003 to 2022, the level of agricultural economic development in Shanxi province promoted carbon emissions, while agricultural industrial structure, production efficiency, and labor force suppressed carbon emissions, leading to a carbon reduction of 239 800 tons due to the joint action of these four factors. And the ranking of influencing effects was as follows: agricultural economic development level > agricultural production efficiency > agricultural labor force > agricultural industrial structure. Therefore, over the past 20 years, Shanxi province achieves significant results in agricultural carbon reduction, with both total carbon emissions and intensity decreasing. And the agricultural structure is also been optimized. However, balancing agricultural economic development and carbon reduction remains a challenge; further optimization of livestock structure, improvement of agricultural production efficiency, and reduction of carbon emissions from agricultural input are necessary to achieve a win-win situation for agricultural development and carbon reduction.