| 摘要: |
| 该文在对国家资源安全长期研究的基础上，引进PSR模型，构建了中国资源安全动态跟踪评价指 标体系，以翔实的数据统计为依据，运用AHP和Delphi等方法对1991～2007年影响我国国家资源安全系 统的压力、状态、响应各因素的变化轨迹实施了模拟跟踪。对跟踪结果分析表明，尽管我国政府和有关机 构采取了积极的资源安全响应对策，但是国家资源安全总体水平仍呈下降态势，根本原因在于人口、GDP、 资源贸易等压力在逐年增长，导致资源安全状态较为脆弱。 |
| 关键词: PSR模型 资源安全 轨迹模拟 成因分析 |
| DOI：10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20100609 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目:国家资源安全管理的目标耦合、系统模拟与制度设计（70873119）;欠发达资源富集区资源诅咒的 典型案例检验与规避路径设计（40871253）。中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所领域前沿项目:世界资源格局与中国资源地缘政治 （066U0401SZ） |
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| SIMULATION AND REASON ANALYSIS OF CHINA'S RESOURCES SECURITY EVOLUTION TRAJECTORY BASED ON PSR MODEL |
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YaoYulong
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Institute of geographical science and resources， Chinese academy of sciences，Beijing 100101
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the long-term research on the state resources security， this paper introduced the PSR model， constructed the dynamic tracing evaluation index system of China resources security. With detailed data statistics， the AHP and Delphi methods were used to simulate and trace the change track of factors influencing the pressure， situation， and response of China's state resources security system from 1991～ 2007. The results indicated that China's government and relevant authorities had taken active response measures on resources security， but the over- all level of the state's resources security still showed a trend of decline， the basic reasons was that the stress of the population， GDP， and resource trade were increasing year by year and hence caused resources security vulnerable. |
| Key words: PSR model resource security trajectory simulation genesis analysis |
