| 摘要: |
| 该文利用IPCC AR4模式资料和基于多年观测资料生成的格点数据，建立降水、最高/最低气温的统计降尺度关系，获取华北地区高分辨率未来气候情景空间分布;利用作物模型模拟IPCC-B1情景下冬小麦生长期和产量变化。结果表明:最高/最低气温模拟结果与观测值比较，相关系数（R2）大于0.70; 降水模拟结果与观测值比较，相关系数最小为0.63; IPCC-B1情景下，华北地区冬小麦生长期总体上变短，产量下降。 |
| 关键词: 气候变化 作物模型 冬小麦 华北 |
| DOI：10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20110410 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家高技术研究发展计划（863计划）2008AA10Z217 |
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| Simulation study on impacts of climate change on the production of winter wheat in North China |
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Zhang Mingwei 1 ， 2 ， 1 ， 1 ， 21, Deng Hui2, Li Guicai1, Fan Jinlong1, Ren Jianqiang2
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1.The national satellite meteorological center， Beijing 100081;2.Key Laboratory of Resources Remote Sensing & Digital Agriculture， Ministry of Agriculture， Beijing 100081， China
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| Abstract: |
| Spatial and temporal mismatches between coarse resolution output of global climate models（GCMs）and fine resolution data requirements of crop models are the major obstacles for assessing the site-specific climatic impacts of climate change on the production of winter wheat. Based on the output of IPCC AR4 model and observation data，statistical downscaling relationship of precipitation，minimum temperature，and maximum temperature in North China was analyzed. With the combination crop model and climate mode，the effects of climate change on the winter wheat production of North China were simulated. Some conclusions from the study might be drawn as follows: Under the IPCC-B1 Scenario，the length of winter wheat growing season in North China would be shortened from 2010 to 2099，and its yield would be decreased. |
| Key words: climate change crop model downscaling winter wheat north China |
