| 摘要: |
| 农业是以作物生长为基础，因此，受气候变化的影响很大。我国幅员辽阔，东西和南北之间气候 差异显著。气候变化将直接导致我国主要农区水资源和热量资源时空分布格局变化。农业生产所依赖的土 壤肥力和作物品种资源及其抗逆性也会在气候变化的作用下发生变化。气候变化直接导致局部地区农业气 候灾害和农业病虫害频度与强度加剧。在气候变化作用下，我国农业作物种植制度、农业生产结构和地区 布局将会发生相应的变化，导致我国粮食产量波动变化，甚至影响到国家粮食安全。因此，迫切需要深入 分析气候变化对我国农业和粮食生产影响的研究进展，提出进一步深入研究的重点发展方向。目前，国内 外围绕气候变化对农业和粮食生产的影响开展了很多研究。综合进来，主要有集中在气候变化对农区水热 土资源要素时空分布变化的影响，对作物品种抗逆性、抗逆基因、品种改良的影响与适应，对作物种植制 度、生产结构与地区布局的影响与适应，对农业生物灾害和非生物灾害尤其是农业旱涝灾害发生的影响， 以及对粮食产量、国家粮食安全和农业发展的影响等方面。从发展趋势看，深入开展气候变化对我国农业 和粮食生产系统的影响机理及适应机制研究，科学地把握气候变化背景下水热资源条件、土壤肥力、品种 资源等变化规律，揭示农业病虫害流行暴发特征和气象灾害发生机理，模拟、分析和预测气候变化对我国 农业、粮食生产和国家粮食安全的影响程度和变化趋势，具有重大的科学价值和现实意义，因而也将是气 候变化对农业和粮食生产影响研究的重点发展方向。 |
| 关键词: 气候变化 农业 粮食生产 影响机理 适应机制 |
| DOI：10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20130501 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:基金项目:国家973计划项目课题（2010CB951504），国家社会科学基金重大项目（11&zd167）。 |
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| PROGRESS AND DIRECTIONS IN STUDYING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE AND GRAIN PRODUCTION IN CHINA |
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Qin Zhihao1, Tang Huajun2, Li Wenjuan2, Zhao Shuhe3
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1.Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning， Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences， Beijing 100081/International Institute for Earth System Sciences， Nanjing University， Nanjing 210093;2.Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning， Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences， Beijing 100081;3.School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences， Nanjing University， Nanjing 210093
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| Abstract: |
| Agriculture especially grain production is very sensitive to climate change as a result of both natural evo- lution and anthropogenic activities. Objective of the paper is to review the progress in studying the impacts of cli- mate change on agriculture and grain production in China. In recent decades， impact of climate change on agricul- ture and grain production has become an important research area and many studies have addressed to the issue. Comprehensively， the existing studies on the impact were mainly concentrated on such aspects as the consequence of climate change as an impact on agricultural resources， cropping system and its spatial structure， modeling and a- nalysis. Further study on the issues may concentrate on the mutual relationship between climate change and agricul- ture especially grain production， the impact mechanism and adaption approaches， the changes of heat flux， sun- shine， water resources available for irrigation， the occurrence of pest， drought and flood. Examination of these is- sues may provide insights into the interaction between climate change and agriculture for better adaption to maintain sustainable development. Therefore these aspects may represent future directions of studying the impact of climate change on agriculture and grain production. |
| Key words: climate change agriculture grain production influence mechanism adaption approaches |
