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引用本文:	罗其友,米健,高明杰.中国粮食中长期消费需求预测研究[J].中国农业资源与区划,2014,35(5):1~7

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中国粮食中长期消费需求预测研究
罗其友¹, 米健², 高明杰¹
1.中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所，北京100081;2.中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所，北京100081/国务院发展研究中心中国发展研究基金会，北京100011

摘要:

粮食中长期消费需求预测是粮食经济、粮食安全研究领域的前沿科学问题。本文采用面板数据分析，估计了4个人均粮食消费需求函数方程；通过时间序列分析确立了2030年和2050年中国的人口、收入、价格和工业用粮比例等重要参数；结合上述参数和估计结果，对中国的长期粮食消费需求进行了不同情景的预测和模拟。模型预测结果表明：未来中国粮食消费总需求将稳步增长，到2030年为56亿~58亿t，到2050年为61亿~65亿t；3种主要农作物的消费份额将发生很大的变化，玉米的消费份额增加，水稻和小麦的份额减少。中国的粮食政策应当根据经济形势和经济政策灵活调整。

关键词: 粮食需求中长期预测分解分析

DOI：10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20140501

分类号:

基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）课题“气候变化驱动的我国粮食生产系统空间数值模拟预测研究”（编号： 2010CB951504）

RESEARCH ON FORECASTING FOR LONG-TERM GRAINCONSUMPTION DEMANDS IN CHINA

Luo Qiyou¹, Mi Jian², Gao Mingjie¹

1.Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081;2.Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081/China Development Research Foundation, Development Research Center of the State Council, Beijing 100011

Abstract:

Food demand forecast was frontier scientific issue in the field of grain economy and food security research. By using panel data analyses, four equations of China food demand functions were estimated in this paper. Through the time series analysis, this paper assumed a lot of important parameters in 2030 and 2050, including population, income, price and industrial grain consumption percentage of China. Combining with the above parameters and the estimation results, it forecasted the long-term food demands of China at different situations. The results showed that: China's total grain demand will increase steadily and reached between 056 billion and 058 billion tons in 2030, and between 061 billion and 065 billion tons in 2050. The consumption share of three main crops will change greatly, the consumption share of corn will increase while the rice and wheat will decrease. Therefore, China's grain policies should be flexibly adjusted in terms of economic situation and economic policies.

Key words: food demand long-term forecast decomposition analysis