| 引用本文: | 李明辉,周玉玺,周林,杨洁,王盈桦.中国小麦生产区域优势度演变及驱动因素分析[J].中国农业资源与区划,2015,36(5):7~15 |
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| 中国小麦生产区域优势度演变及驱动因素分析 |
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李明辉1, 周玉玺2, 周林3, 杨洁4, 王盈桦3
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1.山东农业大学经济管理学院, 泰安 271018/山东省农业科学院, 济南 250100;2.山东农业大学经济管理学院, 泰安 271018;3.山东省农业科学院, 济南 250100;4.山东省农业可持续发展研究所, 济南 250100
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| 摘要: |
| 文章采用地区综合比较优势指数, 实证分析了1994 ~ 2013 年间中国小麦生产区域格局的演变情况。结果表明, 中国小麦生产更加集中, 优势省份由15 个减少至12 个。黄淮海区小麦生产重要性更加突出, 综合优势指数与量比重呈上升趋势, 尤其是向河南、山东、河北3 省集中趋势非常明显。安徽、江苏等小麦生产新兴省份对区域带动作用显著, 促进长江中游区、东南沿海区综合优势指数与产量持续上升, 但由于部分沿海发达城市的小麦生产职能更加弱化, 区域综合不具备比较优势。新疆受规模化影响逐步发展成为小麦生产大省, 带动蒙新区小麦产量实现了增加。西南区、西北区、青藏区及东北区综合优势指数与产量比重持续下降, 区域小麦生产呈现逐步弱化趋势。自然资源禀赋差异、成本收益低下、劳动力机会成本增大、人均耕地面积偏小是影响小麦生产布局演变的主要因素。基于研究分析, 从巩固优势产区、扶持新兴产区, 加大新品种新技术研发推广, 适度规模化经营及善主产区利益补偿机制等4 个方面提出了对策建议。 |
| 关键词: 小麦 区域比较优势 生产布局 区域因素 政策建议 |
| DOI：10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20150502 |
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| 基金项目:由山东省农业应用技术创新重大项目“山东省粮食产能增长路径模式和创新管理研究”、“山东省农业现代化与农业经济管理协调发展创新综合研究”; 山东省软科学研究计划项目(2013RKC02005); 山东农业大学现代农业发展研究院项目(14XSK2-02) 资助 |
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| COMPARATIVEADVANTAGE CHANGES OFREGIONALWHEAT PRODUCTION IN CHINA AND ANALYSIS OF INFLUNCING FACTORS |
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Li Minghui1,2, Zhou Yuxi1, Zhou Lin3, Yang jie4, Wang Yinghua3
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1.College of Economics &Management,Shandong Agricultural University Taian, Shandong,271018;2./Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Jinan, Shandong,250100;3.Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Jinan, Shandong,250100;4.Shandong Institute of Agriculture Sustainable Development, Jinan, Shandong,250100
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| Abstract: |
| Wheat is one of the most important food rations in China. It is of great significance toestablish scientific and reasonable wheatproduction policy by analyzing the variation characteristics and influence factors of regional wheat yield. Based on the panel data of provincial wheat yield in China from 1994 to 2013, the variation trend of Chinese provincial wheat structure was analyzed by using the index of regional production advantage. According to the index of production advantage, the number of the wheat yield advantage provinces decreased from 15 to 12.Wheat productionwas predominant in Huang-huai-hai region, but the production advantage in the west faded away. Both the index of production advantage and the proportion of output were on the rise. The central tendency was most obvious in Henan, Shandong and Hebei. Wheat yield inAnhui and Jiangsu is of notable driving effect to promote output increasing in the middle reaches of Yangtze River and Southeast coastal region. But the regional index was negative because that wheat production function in developed coastal provinces gradually withdrew. Xinjiang had gradually transformed into a large wheat productionprovince by the scale driving. Both the index of production advantage and the proportion of output in Southwest, Northwest, Northeast and Qing-zang region were always decreasing. Wheat production appeared the obvious descending tendency. There were six provinces where the comparative advantage index were always on thetop, such as Hebei, Tianjin, Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu, Anhui. These provinces alllocated inHuang-Huai-Hai region. At present, the comparative advantage index of Henan is 0.66, ranking first, followed by Shandong with 0.54. In addition to Xinjiang, wheat production of provinces in the Northwest, Meng-xin, Qing-zang and Southwest regions have been on decline. These provinces in southeast coastal region such as Fujian, Guangdong are in inferior position. Finally, the article analyzedthe reasons of regional changes of the comparative advantage in wheat production from five aspects, such as natural resources endowment, relatively low comparative efficiency, increased labor opportunity cost, low plant area per capita etc. The comprehensive effect of these factors led to continuous decline of wheat planting area and production in northeast, southwest and developed coastal regions. On the basis of the above analysis, four countermeasures were put forward, i.e. consolidatingthe advantages regions, supporting the emerging regions, increasing wheat production with scientific and technological progress, promoting wheat production by developing appropriate scale operation, arousing farmers'initiative by perfecting compensation mechanism and production polices. |
| Key words: wheat regional comparative advantage layout of production influencing factors policy suggestions |
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