| 摘要: |
| 随着葡萄育种、栽培及管理技术的提高，我国葡萄种植已由传统的优势产区发展到全国各省区都有种植，特别是南方产区葡萄的生产持续快速增长，使得全国葡萄生产布局发生了较大变化，因此在新形势下研究我国葡萄生产布局特征，把握葡萄生产变迁特征与规律，对于合理地配置农业生产资源、优化调整葡萄产业空间布局与规划，具有重要的现实意义。文章首先从宏观角度系统分析了我国葡萄生产的阶段特征与全国层面生产布局的变迁，其次利用微观层面的农户调研数据、比较了不同产区间葡萄生产投入与产出的区域特点及其差异； 接着引入空间自相关性指标，采用Moran’s I指数，在ArcGIS中选取基于边界的空间权重矩阵定义，从全局与局部自相关角度分析了葡萄生产投入产出的空间特征及其与地理位置之间的相互依赖关系与驱动因素。研究结果表明，我国葡萄生产呈现明显的“西迁”、“南移”的发展趋势； 葡萄生产投入与产出指标具有明显的区域差异性； 受葡萄产业内部与外部因素的驱动，其分布体现出显著的空间自相关性，其中全局空间自相关定量测算结果显示我国葡萄生产存在空间正相关性，即相邻地区葡萄生产的投入与产出指标具有相似性，且空间自相关性在逐年加强； 局部空间自相关指数显示我国葡萄投入与产出的低值聚集区主要分布在陕甘宁与内蒙古地区，而高值聚集区主要分布在江浙沪一带，进一步表明，地理因素通过经济发展水平与农业生产结构等方面因素影响着葡萄产业的发展。 |
| 关键词: 葡萄 GIS Moran’s I指数 空间分布 空间自相关 驱动因素 |
| DOI：10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20160228 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目“基于GIS的我国葡萄生产空间布局研究”（2014XJ028）； 现代农业产业技术体系建设专项资金“国家葡萄产业技术体系”（CARS-30） |
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| REAEARCH ON THE SPATIAL FEATURES OFGRAPE PRODUCTION IN CHINA |
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Mu Weisong, Li Chengcheng, Gao Yang, Feng Jianying
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College of Information and Electrical Engineering，China Agricultural University，Beijing 100083，China
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| Abstract: |
| With the improvement of technologies in grape breeding, cultivation and field management, grape cultivation has expanded from the traditional advantage regions to all over China. Especially in the south of China, grape planting area has increased rapidly, which causes the change of grape production layout in recent years. It has practical significance for the optimization and adjustment of industrial distribution and the program of grapes. Therefore, it is necessary to study on the spatial layout of grape production in China under the new situation. First of all, from the perspective of macroscopic, this article systematically analyzed the stage characteristics of grape production and the changes in the national-level production layout. Secondly, using the micro-level household survey data, the article compared the regional characteristics and differences in the different regions with the different grape production capacity range of inputs and outputs. By introducing spatial autocorrelation index adopting Moran's I index method and the definition of the spatial weight matrix based on the boundaries in ArcGIS, it analyzed the spatial characteristics of the input and output of grape production, as well as the dependency relationship and driving factors of the geographic location, from the perspective of global and local autocorrelation. From the perspective of cost-benefit, the study estimated the spatial autocorrelation of grape production. The results showed that the grape production in China showed a development trend with obviously "westward" and "southward". In the same time, the input and output indicators of grape production had visible regional differences.Because of internal and external factors, the spatial layout of the grape industry had significant spatial autocorrelations. Local spatial autocorrelation index showed that the gathering area of the low input and output value of the grape mainly distributed in Shanxi, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, and some provinces in northwest of China, while the areas with high value were mainly located in the east of China, such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, etc. It further indicated that the development of the grape industry was affected by geographical factors due to the different level of economic development and agricultural production structure. |
| Key words: grapes GIS Moran's I index spatial layout spatial autocorrelation driving factors |
