| 摘要: |
| 文章基于一般均衡模型构建了A2与B2两种气候变化情景下我国未来社会发展状况，以叶立明等人的研究成果（2030年与2050年我国三大粮食单产变化）作为政策冲击要件，模拟并分析了2030年与2050年我国粮食供给与需求状况。研究结果表明：A2与B2两种气候变化政策情景下的粮食供给与需求存在较大差异，但中低排放情景下的B2气候变化政策情景对我国粮食供需平衡更为有利；针对分品种粮食供需不平衡的状况，该文认为可以从调整种植结构的角度来改善；尽管政策情景下未来粮食供求较为乐观，但影响粮食安全的社会因素较多，保障粮食安全切不可掉以轻心。 |
| 关键词: 一般均衡模型 气候变化 粮食 供求 粮食安全 |
| DOI：10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20160305 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家重大科学研究计划项目（973）“气候变化对我国粮食生产系统的影响机理及适应机制研究”（2010CB951500） |
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| EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CHINA'S FOOD SECURITY |
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Huang Delin1, Li Ximing1, Li Xinxing2
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1.Institute of Agricultural Economics and development，Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences，Beijing 100081，China;2.Heilongjiang Bayi Agricultural University，Daqing 163319，China
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the general equilibrium model（CGE），the paper constructed the future social development status of China under the two climate change scenarios of A2 and B2.Using Ye Liming's research results（three major grain yield changes of China in 2030 and 2050）as the policy shock condition，this paper simulated and analyzed China's food supply and demand situation in 2030 and 2050.The results showed that there was a big difference in food supply and demand between the A2 and B2 climate change policy scenarioB2 climate change policy scenario，ie.，the low emission scenario，was more favorable in food supply and demand in the future；it could adjust the planting structure for improving the imbalance situation in supply and demand of the three main grainDespite it was more optimistic about the future grain supply and demand under the climate change policy scenario，there were still many social factors affecting food security. |
| Key words: CGE Model climate change grain supply and demand food security |
