| 摘要: |
| 利用1978～2013年新疆统计数据，运用协整分析、构建误差修正模型、Granger因果关系检验，探讨了改革开放以来新疆财政支农、农机化发展水平与农民人均纯收入之间的长短期动态关系及相互影响关系。研究结果显示：（1）新疆财政支农、农机化发展水平及农民人均纯收入整体上呈上升趋势；（2）新疆财政支农、农机化发展水平和农民人均纯收入两两之间存在长期均衡关系；（3）误差修正模型表明短期因素对新疆财政支农、农机化发展水平与农民人均纯收入两两之间的长期均衡关系均具有一定的调节作用；（4）Granger因果关系检验表明，财政支农的变动对农民人均纯收入变动的影响较大，而农民人均纯收入的变动对财政支农的变动影响较小；农机化发展水平与农民人均纯收入之间存在双向因果关系，相互影响作用较强；财政支农的变动对农机总动力变动的影响较大，而农机总动力的变动对财政支农的变动影响作用较弱。为此，新疆要持续促进农民增收，必须加大财政支农的投资力度并协调好财政支农与农机化发展的关系，为新疆“三农问题”有效解决提供坚实可靠的基础。 |
| 关键词: 财政支农 农机化发展 农民收入 协整分析 误差修正模型 |
| DOI：10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20160416 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目: |
|
| RESEARCH ON INTERACTION RELATIONSHIP AMONG THE FINANCIAL SUPPORT FOR AGRICULTURE，AGRICULTURAL MECHANIZATION AND XINJIANG FARMERS' INCOME |
|
Xin Chongchong, Chen Zhiguo, Tang Hongsong, Zhang Min
|
|
Xinjiang agricultural university college of economy and trade，Urumqi 830052，China
|
| Abstract: |
| According to Xinjiang statistics data from the year 1978 to 2013，the long-term and short-term dynamic relationship and influence among financial support for agriculture，agricultural modernization and the per capita net income of farmers were discussed by using co-integration test，error correction model and Granger causality test in Xinjiang since the reform and opening up.The results showed that：1）among the financial support for agriculture，the level of agricultural mechanization and the per capita net income of farmers increased continuously in Xinjiang on the whole.2）There was a long-term equilibrium relationship among the financial support for agriculture，the level of agricultural mechanization development and the per capita net income of farmers.3）The VEC model displayed that short-term factors had certain regulation for each two variables among financial support agriculture，the level of agricultural mechanization development and the per capita net income of farmers.4）Granger causality relationship test showed that financial support had a great influence on the changes of per capita net income of farmersHowever，the changes of per capita net income of farmers had a certain influence on financial support.The financial support and the per capita net income of farmers showed a two-way causal strong relationship.Changes of agricultural financial subsidies for agricultural machinery total power were obvious，but the effects were weak.Therefore，it suggested that Xinjiang should continue to promote the farmers' income，increase financial support，coordinate the relationship between the finance and agricultural mechanization development，and further provide solid and reliable foundation for solving “three rural problems” effectively. |
| Key words: financial support for agriculture agricultural mechanization farmers' income co-integration test error correction model |
