| 摘要: |
| ［目的］为了趋利避害、合理利用闽中地区气候资源，减轻低温冻害对尤溪县金柑生产造成的危害，开展了金柑冻害的气候风险分析与区划。［方法］应用1957~2013年尤溪县气象站及2009~2013年乡镇自动气象站资料等，结合金柑生物学特性和农业生产实践，建立金柑冻害气候风险评估模式； 采用概率移植方法，使乡镇自动气象站资料订正延长成为长序列资料，应用GIS对福建省尤溪县金柑低温冻害气候风险进行分析与区划。［结果］该县金柑越冬期树体冻害气候风险分布可划分为尤溪河两岸等低海拔地区所处的安全区、县内中海拔大部分乡镇所处的轻度冻害风险区以及高海拔地区所处的中度冻害风险区。中低海拔大部分地区金柑树体冻害风险指数低于0.2，中度冻害发生机率不到10%，可以安全越冬。［结论］该县海拔400~700m地区是金柑种植气候适宜区，金柑采果期冻害气候风险指数达到0.3~0.5，需在低温寒害到来之前及早采收，若要留树保鲜，则需采取塑料薄膜覆盖等防冻措施； 海拔高度750m以上建设金柑果园，应避开北坡，尽量选择南坡和西南坡（背风坡），利用山体的屏障作用，减轻冻害； 在850m以上种植金柑，其采果期受冻害风险大，经济效益差，一般不宜种植。 |
| 关键词: 金柑 低温冻害 气候风险 区划 尤溪县 |
| DOI：10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20171123 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:尤溪县科技发展计划项目“地理信息系统在现代农业气候区划中的应用研究” |
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| ANALYSIS AND REGIONALIZATION OF FREEZE DAMAGE RISK OF KUMQUAT IN YOUXI COUNTY OF FUJIAN PROVINCE |
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Ruan Xizhang, Hong Weiqun, Zheng Wenjun, Shou Miaomiao
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Meteorological Bureau of Youxi County, Sanming, Fujian 365100, China
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| Abstract: |
| In order to avoid disadvantages and rational utilize climate resources in central Fujan, reduce the frost damage on kumquat production, this paper carried out risk analysis and regionalization of climate damage in kumquat, assessed the risk of kumquat frost disaster in Youxi county, Fujian province of China in recent decades. The meteorological data for the periods of 1957~2013 and 2009~2013 were used to compute the risk probability of kumquat frost disaster. According to the risk possibility, three grades were divided to the risk of kumquat frost disaster: light, moderate and severe. Combining with the kumquat biological characteristics and agricultural production practice, this paper established a kumquat freezing climate risk assessment model and estimated the probability risk of kumquat freezing at various growing stages. The results showed that the frost climate risk can be divided into the safety zone which was located at both sides of Youxi River and low elevation area, mild frost damage risk zone which was in most towns of medium altitude, and moderate frost damage risk zone in high altitude region. The freezing risk index in low altitude region was below 0.2 and the moderate damage probability was less than 10%, which indicated it was safe over winter. The area located at 400~700m elevation was the kumquat planting suitable climate zones, the climate risk index reached 0.3 to 0.5, so it needed to harvest before the arrival of the low temperature, and take plastic film mulch and other antifreeze measures. The area with the altitude above 750m should avoid plant in north slope and try to choose the south and southwest slope to reduce the frost damage.The area with the altitude above 850m was unfit for planting kumquat. |
| Key words: kumquat low-temperature damage climate risk regionalization Youxi county |
