| 摘要: |
| ［目的］揭示耕地后备资源变化规律及其驱动因素是进行耕地后备资源合理保护、开发利用的重要基础，但目前对于耕地后备资源变化及驱动因素的研究较为匮乏。［方法］文章以山东省为例，基于2003年和2015年两期耕地后备资源数据库，在分析耕地后备资源时空变化的基础上，采用空间回归模型分析了其变化的驱动因素。［结果］2003~2015年期间，山东省集中连片耕地后备资源减少了30.81万hm2，其中可开垦土地减少24.97万hm2，可复垦土地减少5.84万hm2。［结论］总人口、文盲率、农民人均纯收入、建设用地扩张速度、第一产业产值占总产值比重等是山东省耕地后备资源变化的显著性驱动因素，并且总人口和建设用地扩张的驱动作用最大，受教育程度和产业结构调整的作用次之，农民人均纯收入变化对耕地后备资源变化的影响最小。“宏观统筹协调，异地代补”是解决“耕地后备资源空间分布不均衡、供需不匹配”，实现耕地占补平衡、高效合理的开发利用耕地后备资源的必经之路。但异地代补的数量比例和质量应严格控制，并注重对补充耕地地区的经济补偿和政策倾斜，逐步缩小与发达地区之间的差距。 |
| 关键词: 耕地后备资源 时空变化 驱动因素 空间回归模型 山东省 |
| DOI：10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20180117 |
| 分类号:F323.21 |
| 基金项目:山东省重点研发项目“山东区域创新绩效与发展能力监测、评估系统的建立与示范——以东营市可持续发展实验区为例”（2015GSF122004）；山东省社科规划青年项目“低碳视角下城市土地利用发展战略及路径研究”（13DGLZ04）；山东建筑大学博士基金项目“新型城镇化背景下土地利用变化碳排放测算方法及效应研究——以济南市为例”（0000601334） |
|
| THE SPATIOTEMPORAL VARIATION OF RESERVE CULTIVATED LAND RESOURCES AND ITS DRIVING FORCES |
|
Zhang Wenxin1, Dong Guanglong2, Yang Zhongxue2, Liu Jinhua2
|
|
1.Shandong Land Surveying and Planning Institute, Jinan 250014, China;2.School of Management Engineering, Shandong Jianzhu University, Jinan 250101, China
|
| Abstract: |
| Revealing the spatiotemporal variation of reserve cultivated land resources(RCLR）and its driving forces is the foundation for the development and utilization of RCLR. Based on the database of RCLR of 2003 and 2015, we investigated the spatiotemporal variation of RCLR of Shandong province and its driving forces. The results showed that the total area of the lumped RCLR reduced 308.087 thousand hm2 for 2003~2015, and the corresponding values of exploitable land and reclaimable land were 249.693 thousand hm2 and 58.393 thousand hm2, respectively. Population, illiteracy rate, rural per capita net income, expansion of construction land and proportion of the first industrial output in total GDP were the significant drivers for the variation of RCLR in Shandong province. Besides, the driving effect of population and the expansion of construction land were the largest, followed by education level and adjustment industrial structure, and the smallest was rural per capita net income. "Macroscopical coordination, long-distance supplement" was a solution of the problem "uneven spatial distribution, and mismatch between supply and demand", and helpful for the development and utilization of RCLR rationally. However, the percentage and quality of long-distance supplement RCLR should be strictly controlled. Besides, the economic compensation and preferential policy for the area of supplement RCLR should be emphasized and the development disparity should be shrunk. |
| Key words: reserve cultivated land resources spatiotemporal variation driving force spatial regression model Shandong province |
