| 摘要: |
| ［目的］当前中国各地区资源禀赋、社会经济、政策等因素存在较大差异，粮食供求区域性和品种性矛盾将成为未来一个时期内中国粮食必须面临的现实情况，必须进一步了解中国粮食生产和粮食消费的格局演变状态，探索在新形势下保障国家粮食安全的新思路。［方法］以省级行政区为单位，选择不同样本数据（省级粮食产量、消费量），通过空间经济学重心模型对2000~2014年全国稻谷、玉米和小麦的生产和消费的重心进行测算，同时运用地理信息系统（GIS）对3种作物的生产和消费重心运行轨迹进行描绘并对其生产重心和消费重心的耦合性进行测算。［结果］粮食生产和粮食消费的空间匹配性在不断下降，空间布局和粮食利益矛盾进一步加深，区域利益矛盾激化，给新时期粮食储备、粮食调配、粮食多样化供给等方面带来挑战。［结论］需要各区域主体明确责任，完善粮食流通体系，实现省际合作，建立区域粮食利益协调机制，实现区域粮食的合理配置，有效保障粮食安全。 |
| 关键词: 区域 格局演变 粮食生产 粮食消费 重心轨迹 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F326.11 |
| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金重大项目“基于改革视角下国家粮食安全问题研究”（14ZDA041） |
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| THE REGIONAL PATTERN EVOLUTION OF CHINA'S GRAIN PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION |
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He You, Zeng Fusheng
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Economic Institute College, Hunan Agriculture University, Changsha 410128, China
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| Abstract: |
| Based on great differences in resource endowments, socio-economic and policy factors in different regions of China, there is an unavoidable problem of the regional difference in grain supply and demand and the contradiction of varieties in the future. It is necessary to understand the pattern of grain production and grain consumption in China furtherly, and to explore the new situation in the new situation to protect the national food security ideas. This paper selected different sample data of provinces, and calculated the gravity center of production and consumption of rice, corn and wheat from 2000 to 2014 with the gravity model. At the same time, using the geographic information system (GIS) to describe the trajectory of gravity center of production and consumption. And then with these data, the paper calculated the coupling of grain production center of gravity and consumption center of gravity. As a result, the spatial matching of grain production and consumption was declining, the contradiction of spatial layout deepened further and regional conflicts of interest were intensified. Those brought challenges to grain reserves, grain allocation, diversified grain supply and other aspects in the new era. In order to achieve the rational allocation of regional food and protect food security, some measures should be adopted, including clarifying responsibilities, perfecting the grain circulation system, achieving inter-provincial cooperation and establishing regional food interest coordination mechanism for each regional subject. |
| Key words: regional pattern evolution grain production grain consumption center of gravity trajectory |
