| 摘要: |
| ［目的］小麦是在全球范围内广泛种植的一种非常重要的粮食作物，在三大粮食作物中保持着收获面积第一的地位。中国既是世界上最大的小麦生产、消费国，也是世界小麦贸易大国。 全面多角度地分析我国小麦的供需现状，找出小麦产业发展面临的难题，提供科学合理政策建议，对于优化小麦生产和促进小麦贸易都具有积极意义。［方法］利用2007~2016年的统计数据，采用对比分析法对近年来我国小麦的生产、消费和进出口贸易情况进行研究，通过国际竞争力指标分析法测算了10年间我国小麦国际贸易竞争力水平，并与小麦主要出口国进行比较。［结果］（1）我国小麦总体生产能力稳步提升，2016年小麦产量已达到1.29亿t，小麦的生产区域主要集中于河南、山东等省份，大部分省份仅少量种植小麦，小麦的成本收益率相对较低，净利润不断走低。（2）小麦消费量平稳增加，我国小麦的消费量达到1.16亿t，口粮消费占比80%，消费量较大的省份也多分布在小麦主产区，中部地区省份消费缺口相对较大。（3）小麦的贸易量趋向合理，进口量达453万t，我国小麦的供需总体上保持了平衡，但小麦国际贸易逆差较大，小麦的国际竞争力较弱，小麦进口来源过于集中在加拿大、美国等小麦生产大国的状况并未改善，好在哈萨克斯坦和俄罗斯等新兴小麦大国的兴起为我国小麦的多元化贸易提供了契机。［结论］我国要坚持小麦生产以我为主的战略，做好政府服务和市场导向的有机结合，增加农业投入促进小麦高效优质生产，加大科技进步对小麦生产的贡献，合理利用国际市场等措施来保障小麦充分供给，确保国家粮食安全。 |
| 关键词: 小麦 生产 消费 国际贸易 粮食安全 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F326.11 |
| 基金项目:中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目（ASTIP-IAED-2017-02）；中国农业科学院基本科研业务专项（Y2017ZK12）；中央级科研院所基本科研业务费专项（Y2018ZK44） |
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| CURRENT SITTUATION OF PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION AND TRADE OF WHEAT IN CHINA |
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Wang Yijie, Xin Ling, Hu Zhiquan, An Xiaoning
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Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
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| Abstract: |
| Wheat is one of the most important grain crops with the largest harvested areas among the three major grain crops, which has been widely planted in the world. China is a country with largely amount of production, consumption and trade in wheat. Comprehensively analyzing the supply and demand situation of wheat, identifying the challenges that wheat development faced and finding out reasonable policy recommendations have positive significance for both keeping reasonable wheat production and promoting wheat international trade. Based on the data from 2007 to 2016, comparative analysis was used to investigate the situation of wheat production, consumption and trade. China's wheat international trade level was evaluated through international competitiveness indicators, and then compared to the main wheat exporters in the world. The results showed that: (1) The capacity of wheat production steadily increased to 129 million t in 2016, the main producing areas were concentrated in several provinces such as Henan and Shandong, while most provinces produced only a small amount of wheat; the benefits of wheat were relatively low and the net profits were decreasing. (2) The consumption of wheat reached 116 million t with a slightly increase, 80% of consumption was used for food. The largest wheat consuming provinces were mainly located in the main wheat producing areas, the consumption gap was large in the central region. (3) The trade volume of wheat was reasonable, the volume of imports reached 4.53 million t. Overall, the supply and demand of wheat in our country maintained a balance. However, the conditions of big trade deficit and low international competitiveness of wheat in China had not changed. The sources of wheat import still concentrated on Canada, America and Australia and some other countries. The changes in the international wheat market with the rising wheat production and trade from Kazakhstan, Russia and so on, they provided an opportunity for diversified trades of wheat. Finally, it recommended that it should stick to the strategy that wheat supply should be provided by ourselves, make a better combination of government services and market orientation to guide the wheat production better, promote the wheat produce with efficient and high-quality by larger inputs, increase the contribution of technological progress, and make rational use of the international market to offer adequate supply of wheat and ensure national food security. |
| Key words: wheat production consumption international trade food security |
