| 摘要: |
| ［目的］化肥过量使用是导致农业面源污染和农产品产地环境风险的重要因素。虽然已提前实现化肥使用量“零增长”目标，但“后零增长”时代，探寻巩固和推进化肥减施的有效对策仍是当务之急。［方法］文章运用灰色关联分析法与比较分析法，定量分析不同作物种植面积调整对化肥使用量的影响。［结果］化肥用量变化与果蔬类作物种植面积的调整密切相关。近年各省份化肥用量的变化趋势，也佐证了耗肥量大的果蔬类作物种植面积的消长，是助推我国化肥使用量增减变动的重要因素。［结论］种植业结构调整策略将成为控制化肥用量的重要途径，调减非优势区作物种植面积，构建生态友好型耕作制度，在生态脆弱地区开展休耕，综合运用国际农业资源和产品市场，保障短缺农产品供给等种植业结构优化措施，是推动化肥减量直接而有效的方式。同时，应注重转变传统施肥方式，推广化肥减施增效技术，强化绿色发展政策支持与引导，巩固化肥“零增长”成效。 |
| 关键词: 零增长化肥减施种植结构调整耗肥量灰色关联分析 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F3232 |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划课题“化肥农药减施增效管理政策创设研究”（2016YFD0201304）； 2018年度农村环境保护研究“农药化肥行业发展及管理现状分析”； 环境保护部委托“农业现代化政策环境风险评估及预警” |
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| STUDY ON THE PATH OF CHEMICAL FERTILIZER REDUCTION FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF PLANTING STRUCTURE ADJUSTMENT |
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Liu Li, Liu Jing
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Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
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| Abstract: |
| Excessive use of chemical fertilizer is an important factor leading to agricultural surface pollution and environmental risk. In 2017, it achieved the goal of zero growth in fertilizer use in advance. How to consolidate and promote the "zero growth", and to find the effective countermeasures to continue to reduce the use of fertilizer? This issue should be analyzed as an urgency. The grey correlation analysis method and comparative analysis method were used to analyze quantitatively the effects of the change of crops planting area on the use of fertilizer. The results show that the chemical fertilizer dosage is closely related to the planting area of fruit and vegetable crops. The change trend of chemical fertilizer dosage in some regions shows the adjustment of planting area of fruit and vegetable crops is the important reason for the variation of fertilizer dosage in China. The adjustment of crops planting structure will become an important chance to reduce the use of fertilizer effectively. To lessen the crop planting area in weakness section, build eco friendly farming system, practice the fallow in ecologically fragile regions, leverage the international agricultural resources and product market to solve the shortage supply problem of partial agricultural products, these measures for crops planting structure optimization will impel the usage of chemical fertilizer to decrease directly and effectively. At the same time, it is necessary to change the way of traditional fertilization, improve the utilization efficiency of fertilizers, popularize the technology of reducing the usage of fertilizers and increasing the efficiency of fertilizers, and set up policies to support and guide the green development of agriculture. Therefore, it is an effective measure to formulate the adjustment strategy of crops planting structure which is beneficial to reduce the demand of chemical fertilizer and consolidate the "zero growth" of chemical fertilizer. |
| Key words: zero growth chemical fertilizer reduction the adjustment of crops planting structure fertilizer consumption grey correlation analysis |
