| 摘要: |
| ［目的］气候变化下跨尺度变量对生计脆弱性的影响多数为定性研究，很少进行实证研究，文章通过实证分析探索跨尺度变量在干旱影响生计脆弱性中的作用。［方法］基于黄土高原218个农户调查数据，采用线性回归和层次回归分析跨尺度变量在干旱影响生计脆弱性中的中介和调节效应。［结果］干旱对农户生计脆弱性有显著影响。在干旱影响生计脆弱性的过程中，个人尺度的“户主年龄、感知的气温最大值、降雨量变化、干旱程度变化和灾后信息渠道”与农户尺度的“批发市场距离和集市距离”起到了调节作用； 农户尺度的“三代直系亲属的户数和生产机械指数”起到了中介作用； 而村庄尺度的“工程措施”，既没起到中介作用，也没起到调节作用。［结论］用中介和调节效应反映了跨尺度变量的交互作用，在跨尺度效应的实证研究方面提供了科学的方法，弥补了现有研究的空白，这为制定减少农户生计脆弱性的政策提供了科学有效的依据。 |
| 关键词: 农户干旱生计脆弱性中介效应调节效应 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F061.5 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目“黄土高原异质性约束下苹果干旱风险的分类适应性管理研究”（71473196） |
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| MEDIATING AND MODERATING EFFECTS IN THE IMPACT OF DROUGHT ON LIVELIHOOD VULNERABILITY |
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Su Meirui, Liu Pengwei, Wu Xiaoping, Huai Jianjun
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College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China
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| Abstract: |
| The impact of cross scale variables on livelihood vulnerability under climate change is mostly qualitative study, and empirical studies are rarely conducted. Therefore, the peper used empirical analysis to explore the role of cross scale variables in the impact of drought on livelihood vulnerability. Based on the survey data of 218 households in the Loess Plateau, the mediating and moderating effects of cross scale variables in the impact of drought on livelihood vulnerability were investigated by the linear regression and hierarchical regression analysis. The results showed that drought had a significant impact on the livelihood vulnerability of rural households. In the process of drought impacting on livelihood vulnerability, the "age of household head, perceived maximum temperature, rainfall changes, drought degree changes, and post disaster information channels" at the scale of persons and the "wholesale markets′ distance and village fairs′ distance" at the scale of households played a moderating role; the "three generations of immediate family members′ number of households and production machinery index" at the scale of the households played a mediating role; and the "engineering measures" had neither played a moderating role nor a mediating role at the scale of village. This paper used mediating and moderating effects to reflect the interaction of cross scale variables, provided scientific methods in the empirical research of cross scale effects, and made up for the gaps in existing research. This provides a scientific and effective basis for formulating policies to reduce the livelihood vulnerability of rural households. |
| Key words: households drought livelihood vulnerability mediating effect moderating effect |
